Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinin ilk saatlerinde geriledi ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanman\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Alt\u0131n, haftay\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken, 4.510 dolar civar\u0131ndaki bir ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimle birlikte enflasyon endi\u015feleri artt\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha istekli) bir \u00e7izgiye kayabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlerde, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 daha sert bir tutuma y\u00f6neldi\u011fi belirtilirken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki gerginli\u011fin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve ABD\u2019nin daha fazla askeri ad\u0131m atma riskinin bulundu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi (risk zamanlar\u0131nda daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi; dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi de alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ek bir olumsuz etken oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi, ancak kararda al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede \u00e7ok say\u0131da kar\u015f\u0131 oy (\u00fcyelerin karara kat\u0131lmamas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. ABD\u2019de PCE enflasyonu (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) beklentilerden s\u0131cak geldi ve GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) toparland\u0131. Bu veriler, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 kalabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekledi.<\/p>\n
Buna ra\u011fmen, 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019den en az bir faiz indirimi beklentisi bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcne g\u00f6re artt\u0131. Bu durum dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken alt\u0131na da k\u0131smi destek verdi. G\u00f6zler, Orta Do\u011fu ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda ISM \u0130malat PMI (ABD imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde faaliyet d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6steren anket endeksi) dahil ABD verilerine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczeri, k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131n\u0131 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alanlar\u0131n zarar kesmek i\u00e7in yeniden al\u0131m yapmas\u0131) tetikledi; ancak y\u00fckseli\u015f 4.650 dolar ve %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesi (fiyat\u0131n \u00f6nceki hareketine g\u00f6re olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 oran\u0131) civar\u0131nda duraksad\u0131. Diren\u00e7 4.651 ve 4.696 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda; destek ise 100 saatlik basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: belirli s\u00fcre fiyat ortalamas\u0131) olan 4.624 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.595 ve 4.505\u20134.500 band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.600 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inerken, k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, metal i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz fakt\u00f6r. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kalabilece\u011fini ve sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem arayanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ait son istihdam raporu, beklentileri a\u015fan 215 bin yeni istihdam g\u00f6sterdi; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,9 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Bu veriler, Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde acele etmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir neden olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (piyasan\u0131n Fed faizi i\u00e7in beklentisini yans\u0131tan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) y\u0131l sonuna kadar tek bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini %55 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %70\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 aramak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yakla\u015fan ISM \u0130malat PMI verisinin ekonominin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmesi halinde, 4.510 dolar civar\u0131ndaki bir ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye do\u011fru hareket olas\u0131. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, dalgal\u0131 ortamda vadeli i\u015flemde (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015fa k\u0131yasla riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durum belirsizli\u011fini koruyor ve alt\u0131na ani bir g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131m\u0131 getirebilir. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) %18 ile 8 haftan\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin sert hareket bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanma stratejisi) gibi stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda alarm: 4.600 dolar alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc, haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, \u015fahin Fed beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; destek 4.510, diren\u00e7 4.651-4.696.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45950\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}