Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekteki tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan borsa s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %0,14 y\u00fckselerek 49.900\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,12 art\u0131\u015fla 7.250 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise %0,04 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 27.600\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD borsas\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemleri, Wall Street\u2019in Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc rekor kapan\u0131\u015flarla tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq 100 yeni zirveler g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 2020\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ayl\u0131k kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc seansta Dow Jones %1,62 y\u00fckseldi, S&P 500 %1,02 de\u011fer kazand\u0131, Nasdaq 100 %0,89 artt\u0131. Hareketlerde \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 (\u015firketlerin k\u00e2r, gelir ve beklentilerini a\u00e7\u0131klayan finansal sonu\u00e7lar) ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 Apple, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde \u00e7eyreklik sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Dikkatler daha sonra Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Est\u00e9e Lauder ve CBOE (opsiyon borsas\u0131) bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimini izledi. Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (denizden giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n engellenmesi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na dair \u015f\u00fcphelerini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Trump ayr\u0131ca Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re, Kongre\u2019de sava\u015f yetkilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck giri\u015fimleri ele\u015ftirdi; buna Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc daha erken saatlerde reddedilen bir Senato \u00f6nerisi de dahil. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dini lideri Mojtaba Hamaney, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer veya f\u00fcze kapasitesinden vazge\u00e7meyece\u011fini ve bo\u011faz \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn 7.250 civar\u0131nda rekor seviyeleri zorlamas\u0131yla piyasadaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesi (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7) belirgin. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani dalgalanma beklentisini g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 14 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyrediyor. Bu tablo, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 rahatlamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda Nasdaq 100 gibi endekslerde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) iyi performans g\u00f6stermesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 jeopolitik risk y\u00fcksek. K\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ta\u015f\u0131nan petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019unun ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanma ihtimali, piyasa istikrar\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddi bir tehdit. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ama b\u00fcy\u00fck etkili risk (tail risk: nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde sert sonu\u00e7 do\u011furan risk), hisse fiyatlar\u0131na tam yans\u0131m\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Ukrayna i\u015fgalinde piyasan\u0131n tepkisi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabildi\u011fini ve bunun geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebildi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede geri d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini ortaya koydu. Benzer bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekli. SPY gibi geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde (Borsa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Fonu: endeksi takip eden, hisse gibi al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131lan fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, mevcut jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemidir. Ayr\u0131ca VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 da piyasadaki korkunun artmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan bir pozisyon olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda enerji taraf\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif bir f\u0131rsat da olu\u015fuyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gev\u015fese de, uzun s\u00fcrecek bir abluka ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 itebilir. Bug\u00fcn bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayan Chevron ve Exxon Mobil gibi enerji devlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rekorlar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor ama H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski masada: Dow\/S&P\/Nasdaq vadeli art\u0131da, Wall Street g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bilan\u00e7olarla zirvede. VIX d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck; jeopolitik tail risk i\u00e7in put\/VIX call, enerji i\u00e7in Chevron-Exxon call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}