ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi ve Deutsche Bundesbank Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Joachim Nagel, temel senaryonun zaten daha s\u0131k\u0131 (faizlerin daha y\u00fcksek tutularak ekonominin so\u011futuldu\u011fu) bir para politikas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirgin bi\u00e7imde iyile\u015fmezse, Haziran ay\u0131nda ad\u0131m atman\u0131n daha uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Euro, a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 hemen bir tepki vermedi. ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flarken EUR\/USD 1,1740 civar\u0131nda hafif y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), Frankfurt merkezli Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin merkez bankas\u0131d\u0131r ve enflasyonu yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 seviyesinde tutmay\u0131 hedefler. Bunu a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlayarak yapar; Y\u00f6netim Konseyi de y\u0131lda sekiz toplant\u0131da karar al\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Parasal geni\u015fleme (Quantitative Easing – QE), ECB\u2019nin piyasaya Euro yaratarak devlet veya \u015firket tahvilleri gibi varl\u0131klar\u0131 sat\u0131n almas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ad\u0131m genellikle Euro\u2019yu zay\u0131flat\u0131r. ECB, QE\u2019yi 2009\u20132011 K\u00fcresel Finans Krizi d\u00f6neminde, 2015\u2019te ve Covid salg\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (Quantitative Tightening – QT), QE\u2019nin tersidir; ekonomi toparlan\u0131rken ve enflasyon y\u00fckselirken uygulan\u0131r. Tahvil al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 durdurmay\u0131 ve vadesi gelen tahvillerden geri d\u00f6nen ana paray\u0131 (tahvilin nominal\/geri \u00f6denen tutar\u0131) yeniden yat\u0131r\u0131ma y\u00f6nlendirmemeyi i\u00e7erir; bu da Euro\u2019yu destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bu sinyale dayanarak, ECB\u2019nin Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ad\u0131m atmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklentiyi, Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor: Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) Nisan\u2019da %2,9\u2019da kald\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin %2 hedefinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde seyretti. Bu mesaj, takvimi netle\u015ftiriyor ve yaln\u0131zca g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomik iyile\u015fmenin \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ad\u0131mlardan yana) bir hamleyi engelleyebilece\u011fini ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Euro\u2019da z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. T\u00fcrev piyasada bunun i\u015fareti g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131na vadeli EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyeti son bir haftada %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ECB\u2019nin 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde temkinli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ek bir hamle olmadan azalmas\u0131n\u0131 umdu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu bekleme d\u00f6nemi art\u0131k bitmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; bu da g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi korumak i\u00e7in daha net bir ad\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, Haziran\u2019daki ad\u0131m\u0131n ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Euro\u2019nun g\u00fc\u00e7lenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131kla art\u0131yor. Nisan 2026 ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls – tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yeni istihdam) verisi 155 bin ile beklentinin alt\u0131nda geldi. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) kendi faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde yak\u0131nda \u201cduraklama\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ara verme) a\u015famas\u0131na yakla\u015fabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. ECB\u2019nin daha \u015fahin, Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercin (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha isteksiz) bir \u00e7izgiye kaymas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelen bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, EUR\/USD paritesinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019de Nagel\u2019den \u015fahin sinyal: G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm iyile\u015fmezse Haziran\u2019da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma masada. Euro sakin, EUR\/USD 1,1740. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon %2,9. Opsiyon maliyetleri artt\u0131; oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor. Fed\u2019in duraklama beklentisi Euro\u2019yu destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45947","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45947"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45947\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}