NZD\/USD, 0,5900 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi ve Avrupa seans\u0131n\u0131n ilk saatlerinde 0,5890 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim artarken ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam ederken ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bu durum, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara (belirsizlikte daha az riskli kabul edilen yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131na) talebi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haberlere g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019a, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 planlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda brifing verilmesi bekleniyordu; ama\u00e7 \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeniden n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakere masas\u0131na \u00e7ekmekti. \u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 halinde ABD hedeflerine \u201cuzun ve ac\u0131 verici sald\u0131r\u0131larla\u201d kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Dini Lider Mucteba Hamaney ise bo\u011faz\u0131n yeni y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131nda \u201cd\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n su yolundaki k\u00f6t\u00fcye kullan\u0131m\u0131na\u201d son verilmesinden bahsetti.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Fed\u2019in karar organ\u0131 olan FOMC\u2019de (Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi) d\u00f6rt \u00fcyenin birden kar\u015f\u0131 oy vermesi, Ekim 1992\u2019den bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Komite, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131nda k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkili oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Ekonomi 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %2,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu oran \u00f6nceki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde olsa da %2,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 (Kiwi), Yeni Zelanda ekonomisinin durumu, RBNZ\u2019nin (Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131) para politikas\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in talebi ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131ndan etkilenir. RBNZ enflasyonu %1-%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, orta nokta olan %2\u2019ye yak\u0131n tutmay\u0131 hedefler. Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131 da Kiwi \u00fczerinde etkili olur.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimlerin g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki abluka ana g\u00fcndem; bu durum Kiwi gibi risk i\u015ftah\u0131na duyarl\u0131 para birimlerini bask\u0131l\u0131yor. G\u00fcvenli liman talebi, di\u011fer verilerin etkisini \u015fimdilik geri planda b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131z ve geni\u015flikte dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma ya da satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki benzer gerilimlerde, 2019\u2019daki dalgalanmalarda oldu\u011fu gibi Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecek tarihte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan petrol kontratlar\u0131) %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayabildi ve VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksi (piyasadaki korku\/oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 20\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi), %2,0\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalsa da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Komitenin y\u00fcksek enflasyona odaklanmas\u0131 ve 1992\u2019den bu yana en ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f oylaman\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) i\u00e7in e\u015fiklerin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu destek, NZD\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f stratejisini daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, \u201criskli\u201d alg\u0131lanan bir para birimi olmas\u0131 nedeniyle zorlan\u0131yor. En b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019de imalat\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler var; PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) ge\u00e7en ay 49,8\u2019e geriledi. Ayr\u0131ca Global Dairy Trade endeksi (k\u00fcresel s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) son iki ihalede %3,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu da Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ihracat gelirini do\u011frudan bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu unsurlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda NZD\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak daha temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 0,5800 destek seviyesine do\u011fru hareketi hedefleyerek \u201cput\u201d opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almay\u0131 veya \u201cput spread\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan iki put kullanarak maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken i\u015flemdeki azami riski netle\u015ftirir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerginli\u011fi t\u0131rmand\u0131, Dolar g\u00fcvenli limanla g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: NZD\/USD 0,5900 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, \u00c7in PMI ve s\u00fct fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Opsiyonlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45943","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45943","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45943"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45943\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45943"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45943"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45943"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}