Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) Emtia Endeksi (SDR baz\u0131nda, y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fim) Nisan\u2019da %15,7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bir \u00f6nceki veri %12,8 idi.<\/p>\n
Emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n) kal\u0131c\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle RBA\u2019n\u0131n gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha yatk\u0131n, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) bir duru\u015fa kaymas\u0131 beklenebilir. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle i\u015flem yapanlar, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek bitmeden faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131na g\u00f6re faiz takaslar\u0131 (interest rate swap: iki taraf\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) veya vadeli i\u015flemler (futures: ileri bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131, hem ihracat gelirlerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan hem de faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan destek bulabilir. AUD\/USD \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; parite y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 0,6800 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir. 2021-2022 emtia y\u00fckseli\u015fini, 2025 perspektifinden geriye d\u00f6n\u00fck de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131 (terms of trade: ihracat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na oran\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011finde AUD\u2019nin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, hisse senedi sekt\u00f6rleri aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma yarat\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle, \u00f6zellikle demir cevheri \u00fcreticileri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere madencilik ham madde (materials) sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde uzun pozisyon (long: fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) al\u0131nabilir; bu \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131n (margin: sat\u0131\u015f geliri ile maliyet aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n oran\u0131) belirgin \u015fekilde geni\u015fledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, madencilik odakl\u0131 bir borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonunda (ETF: endeksi izleyen, borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) uzun, t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary: zorunlu olmayan t\u00fcketim) ETF\u2019sinde k\u0131sa pozisyon (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) almak \u015feklindeki \u201c\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem\u201d (pair trade: iki varl\u0131kta ayn\u0131 anda uzun-k\u0131sa pozisyonla g\u00f6reli getiri hedefi) daha agresif bir RBA\u2019n\u0131n piyasa \u00fczerindeki genel etkisine kar\u015f\u0131 dengeleme (hedge: risk azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Veriler, Asya\u2019dan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sanayi talebinin (industrial demand: \u00fcretim faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan talep) etkisiyle ham maddelerdeki temel g\u00fcc\u00fc do\u011fruluyor. Singapur Borsas\u0131\u2019nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren demir cevheri vadeli kontratlar\u0131 son bir ayda %8 y\u00fckseldi; bu art\u0131\u015f, s\u0131k\u0131 arz\u0131 (supply tightness: piyasada mal\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 olmas\u0131) ve yeniden canlanan imalat faaliyetini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. 2022 sonlar\u0131nda benzer bir birikim g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve ard\u0131ndan kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f gelmi\u015fti; bu da kilit sanayi metallerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n kademeli olu\u015fturulabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
RBA emtia endeksi Nisan\u2019da %15,7\u2019ye s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor, RBA\u2019dan \u015fahin sinyal gelebilir. AUD\/USD 0,6800 \u00fcst\u00fc hedeflenebilir; madencilik long, t\u00fcketici ETF short hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45940\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}