\u0130ngiltere\u2019de Nationwide\u2019in mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f konut fiyatlar\u0131 Nisan\u2019da ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131. Bu oran, -%0,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Beklenmedik %0,4\u2019l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, ekonominin so\u011fudu\u011fu anlat\u0131s\u0131na meydan okuyor. Bu diren\u00e7, t\u00fcketici talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor ve enflasyon \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan etkili. **T\u00fcrev i\u015flem** yapanlar i\u00e7in (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon), bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu verinin, Sterlin\u2019i destekledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc BoE\u2019nin daha **\u015fahin** bir duru\u015fa (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faizi y\u00fcksek tutmaya daha istekli) y\u00f6nelmesi daha olas\u0131 hale geliyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyon son okumada %2,9 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 **inat\u00e7\u0131** (kolay gerilemeyen) seyrederken, konut piyasas\u0131ndaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7 para politikas\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi (faiz indirimini) daha az gerek\u00e7eli k\u0131l\u0131yor. Sterlin bazl\u0131 d\u00f6viz \u00e7iftlerinde, \u00f6zellikle euro ve yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u0130ngiltere devlet tahvillerinde (**gilt**; \u0130ngiltere Hazine tahvili) daha y\u00fcksek **getirilere** (yield; tahvilin faiz\/geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f oran\u0131) i\u015faret eder. 2025 boyunca piyasa tepkilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 sinyalleri s\u0131k\u00e7a giltlerde sat\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda gilt fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Tahvil fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde getirisi y\u00fckselir.)<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda bu tablo, \u00f6zellikle konut in\u015faat \u015firketleri ve bankalar i\u00e7in olumlu. Son veriler, konut kredisi onaylar\u0131n\u0131n 15 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 68 bine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti; fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sekt\u00f6re g\u00fcveni art\u0131r\u0131r. Biz, konut piyasas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f endi\u015feleriyle **de\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f** (piyasan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130ngiliz bankalar\u0131 ve in\u015faat \u015firketlerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda** (call option; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan sonu\u00e7: \u0130ngiltere\u2019de faizlerin izleyece\u011fi yol art\u0131k daha belirsiz. Bu da \u00f6zellikle bir sonraki BoE toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00e7evresinde piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Piyasan\u0131n bu yeni bilgiyi sindirmesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde **\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (implied volatility; opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcrpriz konut verisi BoE senaryosunu tersine \u00e7evirebilir! Nationwide: Nisan\u2019da fiyatlar %0,4 artt\u0131, beklenti -%0,3. Sterlin destek, gilt getirileri yukar\u0131, bankalar\/konut\u00e7ular pozitif; oynakl\u0131k artabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45935"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45935\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}