USD\/JPY, 155,00 seviyesinin ortalar\u0131ndan gelen ge\u00e7 toparlanmay\u0131 uzatt\u0131 ve Cuma Asya seans\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Kur yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,55\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tokyo t\u00fcketici enflasyonu verisinin beklentiden zay\u0131f gelmesi yen\u2019i bask\u0131lad\u0131. Bu durum, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik endi\u015feler nedeniyle Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD dolar\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f de pariteyi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u00f6viz yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura, yetkililerin kur konusunda ABD ile yak\u0131n temas halinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, piyasada \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (devletin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yaparak kuru etkilemesi) riskini g\u00fcndemde tuttu ve yen\u2019deki ek de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc USD\/JPY, Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 160,75\u2019ten geriledi ve \u015eubat\u2013Nisan y\u00fckseli\u015finin %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede destek buldu. (Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesi, \u00f6nceki y\u00fckseli\u015f\/d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hareketlerinde olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme noktalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren teknik analiz arac\u0131d\u0131r.) Parite ayr\u0131ca 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama; son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vererek trendi izleyen ortalama) \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6stergeler) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret etmeye devam ediyor: RSI (g\u00f6receli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 40 civar\u0131nda ve MACD (hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 trend\/momentum g\u00f6stergesi) s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 157,48, ard\u0131ndan 158,73 ve 160,75 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Destek 156,47\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 155,47 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 155,21\u2019de bulunuyor. Bunun alt\u0131nda 154,03 ve 152,20 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik b\u00f6l\u00fcm, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 yard\u0131m\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 1 May\u0131s 2026 itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY 157,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, birbirine z\u0131t etkenler nedeniyle belirsiz. Yen\u2019deki temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Japon yetkililerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya ve bu durum piyasada gergin bir denge yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, y\u00f6n tahmini yerine sert ve ani fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak daha anlaml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019in zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen temel unsur s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Nisan 2026 Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE (enerji gibi oynak kalemlerin etkisi azalt\u0131lm\u0131\u015f t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) %1,9 ile BoJ hedefinin biraz alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu, BoJ\u2019un yeni faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemesi i\u00e7in alan yarat\u0131yor ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n destekleyici kalmas\u0131 pariteyi ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan kalan 158,73 gibi diren\u00e7lere ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, devlet m\u00fcdahalesi riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek. Ekim 2024\u2019te ve Mart 2025\u2019te, parite 161\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yen al\u0131mlar\u0131 (resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale) fiyat\u0131 sert \u015fekilde geri \u00e7evirmi\u015fti. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Suzuki\u2019nin iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce piyasalar\u0131 \u201cy\u00fcksek bir aciliyet duygusuyla\u201d izledi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemesi, benzer bir m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve 160,75 civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda dolar, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015fesi ta\u015f\u0131yan Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) nedeniyle destek buluyor. Son \u00e7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksi (Fed\u2019in enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcnde yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131na dayal\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) %2,9\u2019da kalmaya devam etti. Fed\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu (\u015fahin) ile BoJ\u2019un daha gev\u015fek duru\u015fu (g\u00fcvercin) aras\u0131ndaki bu politika fark\u0131 parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Bu da, Maliye\u2019nin \u00e7ok sert ad\u0131m atmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir senaryoda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloda izlenmesi gereken ana unsur, ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma). 1 ayl\u0131k opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket ihtimalini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Straddle veya strangle gibi stratejiler (opsiyonlarda, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan kurulumlar) etkili olabilir. 155,20\u2013155,50 kritik destek b\u00f6lgesinin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, m\u00fcdahalenin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli trendin d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sinyalini verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 155\u2019lerden toparlan\u0131p 157,55\u2019e t\u0131rmand\u0131; zay\u0131f Tokyo enflasyonu yen\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak 160,75 sonras\u0131 m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesi i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Teknikte RSI 40, kritik e\u015fik 155,20\u2013155,50.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45930"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45930\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}