GBP\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde %0,35 y\u00fckselerek 214,00 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Parite, Japon Yeni\u2019nin Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri vermesiyle yukar\u0131 hareket etti. Japonya, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda (forex; para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc spek\u00fclatif hareketleri (k\u0131sa vadeli, y\u00fcksek riskli fiyat bahisleri) s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti.<\/p>\n
Reuters, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Yeni ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi\u011fini bildirdi. Bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131ld\u0131r yap\u0131lan ilk resmi d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesiydi. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda \u201ckararl\u0131 ad\u0131m\u201d atmaya daha da yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019nun Nisan ay\u0131 taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE\u2019si (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) beklentiden zay\u0131f geldi. Enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Mart\u2019taki %1,7\u2019den %1,5\u2019e geriledi; beklenti %1,8\u2019di.<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Asya i\u015flemlerinde Kanada Dolar\u0131 hari\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu maj\u00f6r para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Bu hareket, enerji arz \u015foku (enerji fiyat\/tedarikindeki ani bozulma) s\u00fcrerse \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun \u201cikinci tur etkilerini\u201d (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccret\/fiyat sarmal\u0131yla tekrar enflasyonu beslemesi) beklemek yerine daha erken hareket edeceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen klasik \u201cetkinin s\u00f6nmesi\u201d (ilk tepki hareketinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede geri al\u0131nmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc izleniyor; GBP\/JPY 214,00 seviyesini zorluyor. Yen\u2019deki toparlanma k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu hamleler Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) para politikas\u0131yla (faiz ve likidite duru\u015fu) uyumlu de\u011fil. Bu desen, 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ancak ge\u00e7ici m\u00fcdahaleleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yen a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel sorun, Japonya\u2019daki zay\u0131f enflasyon. Nisan Tokyo T\u00dcFE verisi %1,5\u2019e beklenmedik \u015fekilde geriledi. Bu tablo, BoJ\u2019un Mart 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131) bitirmi\u015f olsa bile, faizi anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 \u201celi zay\u0131f\u201d bir \u015fekilde m\u00fccadele ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoE\u2019nin mesaj\u0131 daha net ve sterlini destekliyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun Mart 2024\u2019te %3,2 ile %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, Bailey\u2019nin ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyallerini daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu durum, zaten geni\u015f olan \u0130ngiltere-Japonya faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor ve sterlin ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (elde tutmay\u0131) Yen satmaya g\u00f6re daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (t\u00fcrev; de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler, \u00f6r. opsiyon\/kontrat), m\u00fcdahale tehdidi ile temel politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (volatilite; fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) anlam\u0131na gelir. GBP\/JPY\u2019de sert ve ani hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu ortamda \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejileri (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak y\u00f6n de\u011fil hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden kazanmay\u0131 hedefleme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. VIX endeksi (piyasan\u0131n beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 2025 boyunca merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 seyretti; d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Dalgalanmaya ra\u011fmen GBP\/JPY\u2019de ana e\u011filim yukar\u0131. \u201cCarry trade\u201d (faiz fark\u0131 i\u015flemi; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimiyle bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri arama) sterline sermaye \u00e7ekmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 yeni Japon m\u00fcdahaleleriyle gelen Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ge\u00e7ici g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fc) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japonya, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda paras\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in rekor 9,79 trilyon yen harcad\u0131; ancak etkisi kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden faiz dinamiklerine d\u00f6ner ve bunlar GBP\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekler. GBP\/JPY\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu satmak (OTM put; mevcut fiyattan daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu, prim geliri i\u00e7in sat\u0131l\u0131r) yukar\u0131 e\u011filimde prim (opsiyon primi; opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
M\u00fcdahale r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 \u00e7abuk mu s\u00f6nd\u00fc? GBP\/JPY Asya\u2019da %0,35 art\u0131\u015fla 214,00\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Tokyo enflasyonu %1,5\u2019e indi, BoJ eli zay\u0131f. BoE \u015fahin, carry trade sterlini destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45928\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}