EUR\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc %1,88\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 184,40\u2013184,50 band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyretti. Hareket, Tokyo enflasyon verilerinin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k gelmesi sonras\u0131 Japon yeninin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla geldi.<\/p>\n
Tokyo man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) Nisan\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi (\u00f6nceki %1,4). Taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7 \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,5 artt\u0131; bu oran %1,8\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda ve \u00f6nceki %1,7\u2019nin gerisinde kald\u0131. Taze g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 T\u00dcFE ise %1,7\u2019den %1,5\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Yen, daha \u00f6nceki sert hareketin ard\u0131ndan destek bulmu\u015ftu; bu hareket piyasada Japon yetkililerin olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesiyle (kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131yla girilmesi) ili\u015fkilendirildi. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 herhangi bir i\u015flem do\u011frulamad\u0131; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeni m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130\u015flerden Sorumlu Maliye Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Atsushi Mimura, m\u00fcdahale veya ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri hakk\u0131nda yorum yapmad\u0131. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n kur konular\u0131nda ABD ile yak\u0131n temas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Euro da, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesiyle destek buldu; mevduat faizi %2\u2019de kald\u0131. ECB, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn genel olarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini, ancak enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen m\u00fcdahaleler, k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7ok sert oynakl\u0131k yaratt\u0131 ancak yenin uzun vadeli de\u011fer kayb\u0131 e\u011filimini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. 2022 ve 2024\u2019teki \u00f6rneklerde oldu\u011fu gibi, trilyonlarca yen harcanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen etki ge\u00e7ici kald\u0131. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri kur gibi bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcn) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, yenin zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ana e\u011filim s\u00fcrerken ani ve sert ters hareket riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerde EUR\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin Nisan 2025\u2019teki temkinli duru\u015fundan bu yana Avrupa ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131 daha da a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyonun %2,8 olmas\u0131, ECB\u2019yi mevduat faizini %2,25\u2019te tutmaya itti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,1\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131, euroyu desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n EUR\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan sat\u0131n alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; b\u00f6ylece olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahalede risk \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 uzak\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put: mevcut fiyata g\u00f6re daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 bir seviyeden satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) satmak, y\u00fcksek prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplayarak bir strateji olabilir; varsay\u0131m, yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. Ancak m\u00fcdahale beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck olursa bu stratejinin riski y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki temel gerilim, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gev\u015fek\/temkinli para politikas\u0131 ile Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n aktif kur m\u00fcdahalesi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma. Bu gerilim, g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana nedeni.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/JPY 184,4 civar\u0131nda: Tokyo T\u00dcFE\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek zay\u0131f, yen bask\u0131da. M\u00fcdahale riski masada; opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %12+. ECB-BOJ faiz fark\u0131 euroyu destekliyor, volatilite y\u00fcksek kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45927"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45927\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}