GBP\/USD, Asya i\u015flemlerinde Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3610 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Parite, \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 y\u00fckseldikten sonra yatay kald\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (risk art\u0131nca yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken parite dengelendi.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Bloomberg, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (denizden giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n askeri y\u00f6ntemle engellenmesi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. Haberde ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) yak\u0131n zamanda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmayabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015felere yer verildi. Trump\u2019\u0131n, sava\u015f yetkilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya d\u00f6n\u00fck Kongre giri\u015fimlerini ele\u015ftirdi\u011fi; ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn reddedilen bir Senato \u00f6nerisinin de bu kapsamda oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc PCE Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat g\u00f6stergesi) Mart\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019den %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve beklentiye paralel geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,7 oldu. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u015eubat\u2019taki %3\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve tahminlerle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00f6nc\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131za \u00e7evrilmi\u015f \u00f6n verisi) 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte %2,0 artt\u0131; beklenti %2,3\u2019t\u00fc. \u00d6nceki veri %0,5 seviyesindeydi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise BoE (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) Banka Faizi\u2019ni %3,75\u2019te 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 1 oyla sabit tuttu; Huw Pill 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) art\u0131\u015f istedi.<\/p>\n
BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey, ikinci tur enflasyon risklerine (ilk fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretler ve di\u011fer maliyetlere yans\u0131yarak enflasyonu kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131) ve enerjiden kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fccretlere etkisine i\u015faret etti. Bu bask\u0131lar ekonomiye yay\u0131l\u0131rsa MPC\u2019nin (para politikas\u0131 kurulu) \u00f6nleyici ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle GBP\/USD\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir. Fed, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; BoE ise faizi sabit tutarak faiz patikas\u0131na (faizlerin ileride izlemesi beklenen yola) ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen opsiyon stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte alarak y\u00f6n de\u011fil sert hareket beklemek), \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131ran ana unsur. Benzer bir tabloyu 2023 sonlar\u0131nda K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki gemi sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; Brent petrol fiyat\u0131 bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortam, sterlindeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin ge\u00e7ici olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019de vadeli i\u015flemler (belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 bizim i\u00e7in temel tema. ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu %3,2 ile y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekebilir. BoE\u2019nin faizi sabit tutan 8-1 oylamas\u0131 ise kurulun ad\u0131m atmakta isteksiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, 2022\u2019deki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 20 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer bir e\u011filim yeniden olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin, Bailey\u2019nin ikinci tur enflasyon uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklemesi, sterlin i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir risk. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselmeye devam ederse MPC \u201ce\u011frinin gerisinde\u201d kalabilir (gecikmeli tepki verip sonradan daha sert ad\u0131m atma riski). Bu da ileride ekonomiyi zorlayabilecek daha agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Bu tablo, sterlin i\u00e7in daha zay\u0131f bir temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma veya spek\u00fclatif k\u0131sa pozisyonlar (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Orta Do\u011fu riski dolar\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201da ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131: GBP\/USD 1,3610\u2019da yatay. ABD PCE %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Fed \u015fahin. BoE 8-1 pas ge\u00e7ti; oynakl\u0131k, straddle\/put\u2019lar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45925","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45925"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45925\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45925"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45925"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45925"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}