USD\/JPY, 155,00\u2019lerin ortas\u0131ndaki iki ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinden ge\u00e7 saatlerde ba\u015flayan toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. Parite yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,25\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni, Japon yetkililerin s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmesine (kur \u00fczerinde s\u00f6zle bask\u0131 kurma) verilen ilk tepkinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden zay\u0131flad\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim de, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n aksama riskine dair endi\u015feleri art\u0131rd\u0131. Buna ek olarak, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni askeri sald\u0131r\u0131 se\u00e7eneklerini de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tokyo t\u00fcketici enflasyonu Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergelerde beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) %2 hedefine \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayda da ula\u015famad\u0131. Bu durum, daha \u00f6nce Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali konu\u015fulsa da BoJ\u2019un \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. \u00d6te yandan Japonya \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) Ocak 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme de pariteyi destekledi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Kararda \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye kar\u015f\u0131 oy kulland\u0131; bu, 1992\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek kar\u015f\u0131 oy say\u0131s\u0131 olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. Ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ABD GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %2,0 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc; \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte bu oran %0,5\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de enflasyon Mart ay\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisiyle h\u0131zland\u0131. Bu da faizlerin gelecek y\u0131la kadar d\u00fc\u015fmeyebilece\u011fi beklentisini art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisini (ABD\u2019de imalat aktivitesinin \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi) bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Yendeki zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki yeni gerilimlerle birlikte, reel ekonomi (\u00fcretim, t\u00fcketim ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme) endi\u015feleriyle de art\u0131yor. 2025\u2019te petrol arz\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n Japonya ekonomisini nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Tokyo\u2019da Nisan enflasyonunun %1,6 ile zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131, BoJ\u2019un faiz art\u0131rma iste\u011fini azalt\u0131yor. Bu da yeni \u201celde tutmas\u0131\u201d cazip bir para birimi olmaktan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler piyasas\u0131na (opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 ara\u00e7lar) bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fc daha bask\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u201cCall opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131, 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d (opsiyonun i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f seviye) ile, bu hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in basit bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Parite 2024\u2019te bu seviyeyi ge\u00e7ti\u011finde sert m\u00fcdahaleler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ancak ABD verilerindeki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7, bu kez daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; Fed\u2019in 2027 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar faiz indirmesine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k veriliyor. Bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n Japon yenine k\u0131yasla getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan kazan\u00e7) g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Riski daha net s\u0131n\u0131rlamak isteyenler i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak maliyeti ve kazanc\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan strateji) 159,50 hedefli bir hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir; olas\u0131 zarar da s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) izlenmeli. Jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahale endi\u015feleriyle bu g\u00f6sterge y\u00fckseliyor. Bu ortamda, \u201czarar b\u00f6lgesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d kalan put opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak (out-of-the-money put; mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, sat\u0131c\u0131ya prim geliri sa\u011flayan opsiyon) prim geliri toplamak i\u00e7in cazip olabilir. Son dip seviyeye yak\u0131n 155,50 civar\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 tampon sa\u011flayabilir; parite y\u00fckselirse, yatay kal\u0131rsa ya da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011far.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat: USD\/JPY, 155 diplerinden 157,25\u2019e toparland\u0131. Tokyo enflasyonu zay\u0131f, BoJ bekle-g\u00f6r; Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ve jeopolitik riskler dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Opsiyonlarda 160 call, 159,50 bull spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45923","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45923","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45923"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45923\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45923"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45923"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45923"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}