Tokyo\u2019nun g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE), nisan ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,5 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemdeki %1,7\u2019ye g\u00f6re geriledi.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Tokyo enflasyonunun g\u0131da ve enerji kalemleri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f halini ifade eder. (G\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon, fiyatlar\u0131 oynak olan bu iki grubun etkisini d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131p daha kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat e\u011filimini g\u00f6stermeyi ama\u00e7lar.) Nisan ay\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019nun \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %1,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6nemli bir sinyal. Bu seviye, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) %2 hedefinden daha da uzakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor ve bankan\u0131n bu \u00e7eyrekte yeniden faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. (Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizini y\u00fckseltmesidir; genelde enflasyonu yava\u015flatmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.) Bu durum, 2025 boyunca biriken enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z kesti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. BoJ\u2019un 28 May\u0131s\u2019taki toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) beklentiler d\u00fc\u015febilir; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile politika fark\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7abilir. (Politika fark\u0131, iki \u00fclkenin faiz\/para politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmad\u0131r; genelde kur \u00fczerinde etkili olur.) USD\/JPY\u2019de 162,50 civar\u0131ndaki mart zirvelerine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f hedefiyle al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. (Call opsiyonu, belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 verir; kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanma e\u011filimindedir.)<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Japon hisse senetleri i\u00e7in de destekleyici; \u00f6zellikle ihracat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nikkei 225 i\u00e7in. Zay\u0131f yen, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelirleri yen cinsinden b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in ihracat\u00e7\u0131 \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Nikkei 225 vadeli kontratlar\u0131 (futures) veya \u201czarar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla bu temaya pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. (Vadeli kontrat, belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131d\u0131r. Out-of-the-money opsiyon, mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha ucuz olur; ancak hedef ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse de\u011fersiz kalabilir.)<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasas\u0131nda ise bu enflasyon verisi, Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) getirileri \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Piyasa, BoJ\u2019un 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda negatif faizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yaz aylar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu. (Negatif faiz, politika faizinin s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na indirilmesidir.) \u015eimdi 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisinin, halen %0,95 seviyesinden, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %0,80 band\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test etmesi olas\u0131. (Tahvil getirisi\/yield, tahvilin faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyat\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan getiridir; fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse getiri y\u00fckselir, fiyat y\u00fckselirse getiri d\u00fc\u015fer.)<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite %9,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. (\u0130ma edilen volatilite, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cpiyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi\u201d kur dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr.) Bu, yenin desteklenmesi i\u00e7in olas\u0131 kamu m\u00fcdahalesi (resmi kurumlar\u0131n kur hareketine do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi) konusundaki tedirginli\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u201ccall spread\u201d olabilir. (Call spread, bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir call satmakt\u0131r; \u00f6denen primi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr, ancak kazanc\u0131 da belirli bir seviyede s\u0131n\u0131rlar.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu nisanda %1,5\u2019e geriledi: BoJ\u2019un 28 May\u0131s\u2019ta faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimali zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Yen bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalabilir; USD\/JPY 162,50 hedefi, Nikkei\u2019ye destek, JGB getirileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45918"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45918\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}