Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.630 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da yeniden artan gerilim nedeniyle \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6neldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Basra K\u00f6rfezi\u2019nden \u00e7\u0131kan petrol\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi dar deniz ge\u00e7idi) yak\u0131n zamanda yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmayabilece\u011fine dair endi\u015feler artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ablukay\u0131 \u201caskeri operasyonlar\u0131n uzant\u0131s\u0131\u201d olarak niteledi ve bunun \u201ctahamm\u00fcl edilemez\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Anla\u015fmazl\u0131k ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, enflasyon (fiyatlar\u0131n genel d\u00fczeyindeki art\u0131\u015f) endi\u015felerini b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir ve faiz indirimi beklentilerini azaltabilir. Bu da \u201cfaiz geliri olmayan\u201d alt\u0131na (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demesi yapmayan varl\u0131k) talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc temel politika faizini sabit tuttu. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn \u00e7ok belirsiz oldu\u011funu, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n bu belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n \u201cde\u011fer saklama arac\u0131\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; piyasalarda stres oldu\u011funda talep g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Ayr\u0131ca enflasyona ve para birimlerinin de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckoruma\u201d (hedge: riskten korunma) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131; bu, kay\u0131tlardaki en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k al\u0131md\u0131. Rezervlerini art\u0131ranlar aras\u0131nda \u00c7in, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye de yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ABD dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvilleriyle (devletin bor\u00e7lanma senetleri) ters y\u00f6nde hareket eder. Faizler y\u00fckseldi\u011finde alt\u0131n gerileyebilir; hisse senetleri y\u00fckseldi\u011finde de zay\u0131flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.630 dolar civar\u0131ndayken odak noktas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ile y\u00fcksek faizlerin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu bask\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fme. Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131, \u201cgetiri \u00fcretmeyen\u201d bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini (alternatif getiriden vazge\u00e7menin bedeli) y\u00fcksek b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ferse a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri hesaba katmadan bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin pe\u015finden gitmekte temkinli olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki geli\u015fmeler, alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltti. Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) (alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 izleyen endeks) 24,5 ile son 18 ay\u0131n zirvelerine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu durum opsiyonu do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 \u00e7ok pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor; \u201czaman de\u011feri erimesi\u201d (time decay: g\u00fcn ge\u00e7tik\u00e7e opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) olas\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bunun yerine, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanan y\u00f6ntemler de\u011ferlendirilebilir: \u00f6rne\u011fin mevcut alt\u0131n pozisyonuna kar\u015f\u0131 \u201ckapal\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak\u201d (covered call: eldeki varl\u0131\u011fa dayanarak al\u0131m opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) veya \u201cspread\u201d kullanmak (farkl\u0131 fiyat\/son vade ile opsiyon al\u0131p satarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131).<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc deste\u011fini de unutmamak gerekir. 2025 boyunca agresif al\u0131mlar s\u00fcrerken k\u00fcresel rezervlere 1.040 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n eklendi. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 talep, piyasada bir \u201ctaban\u201d (fiyat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlarla desteklenmesi) olu\u015fturabilir; olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Bu yap\u0131sal al\u0131m iste\u011fi, mevcut ko\u015fullarda do\u011frudan \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d (short: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynanan pozisyon) i\u00e7in riski art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00c7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enflasyona etkisi kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fken. Nisan 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketici sepetindeki fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimini \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) %3,7 ile Fed\u2019i bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda tutuyor. Ablukan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi enerji ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetlerini y\u00fckseltebilir; bu da Fed\u2019in ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve \u201cfaizler daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kal\u0131r\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Bu senaryo, jeopolitik kriz devam etse bile alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131yla ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc ili\u015fkisi izlenmeli. ABD faizleri cazip kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yat\u0131\u015fma, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tekrar faize\/getiriye \u00e7evirebilir; bu da dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirip alt\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 yaratabilir. 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir piyasa korkusunun ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmle birlikte de\u011ferli metallerde dolar kaynakl\u0131 sert bir d\u00fczeltme g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.630 dolara t\u0131rmand\u0131: \u0130ran\u2019a deniz ablukas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz endi\u015fesi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ancak Fed\u2019in y\u00fcksek faiz duru\u015fu y\u00fckseli\u015fi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 pahal\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131 destekli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45917"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45917\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}