Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Nisan ay\u0131nda geriledi. Endeks, \u00f6nceki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmdeki 91,3 seviyesinden 80,3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu, 11,0 puanl\u0131k bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Nisan sonucu, bir \u00f6nceki ay\u0131n seviyesinin alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin 80,3\u2019e sert d\u00fc\u015fmesi, hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131nda belirgin bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi ve Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) \u00f6nceki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (faizi y\u00fckselterek bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) hane b\u00fct\u00e7elerini art\u0131k daha net zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, perakende sat\u0131\u015flara ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH: ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine yans\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 (NZD) i\u00e7in olumsuz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa, RBNZ\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayabilir. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) %3,8 ile y\u00fcksek kalm\u0131\u015f olsa da, duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu sert bozulma RBNZ\u2019yi beklenenden \u00f6nce enflasyon yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeye itebilir. NZD\u2019nin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir; \u00f6zellikle AUD (Avustralya Dolar\u0131) ve USD (ABD Dolar\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda. Risk s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) kullan\u0131labilir ya da NZD\/USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (gelecekte teslim\/uzla\u015fma i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u201ck\u0131sa pozisyon\u201d al\u0131narak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynanabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6zellikle iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcketim (zorunlu olmayan harcamalar) odakl\u0131 \u015firketler i\u00e7in NZX 50 endeksinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten veya artan oynakl\u0131ktan (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin endeks ya da perakende a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 hisselerde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan satma hakk\u0131) almak. Bu durum, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda pandemi sonras\u0131 toparlanman\u0131n ivme kaybetti\u011fi d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen dalgal\u0131 piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda odak, getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131na (k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin i\u015faret etti\u011fi b\u00f6l\u00fcm) kayabilir. G\u00fcvendeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, RBNZ\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 savunan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak k\u0131sa vadeli faizler \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Piyasan\u0131n, Resm\u00ee Nakit Oran\u0131 (OCR: RBNZ\u2019nin politika faizi) i\u00e7in 2027\u2019ye kadar daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi veya daha gev\u015fek politika mesaj\u0131) bir patika fiyatlamas\u0131yla, \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,75 olan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k swap faizinin (faiz takas\u0131: sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerinin takas edildi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) gerilemesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: Yeni Zelanda\u2019da ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Nisan\u2019da 91,3\u2019ten 80,3\u2019e indi. Harcamalar yava\u015flayabilir; RBNZ\u2019de faiz indirimi beklentisi art\u0131p NZD bask\u0131lanabilir, k\u0131sa vadeli swap faizleri gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45915"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45915\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}