USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc saatler i\u00e7inde sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yapt\u0131ktan sonra %2,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Londra i\u015flemlerinin ba\u015f\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 160,75\u2019e y\u00fckseldi, ard\u0131ndan 155,55\u2019e geriledi. Bu hareket yakla\u015f\u0131k 500 pip (paritede 0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fimlerin geleneksel \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc; 500 pip \u2248 5 yen) anlam\u0131na geliyor. Daha sonra 156,65 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Zirveden dip seviyeye hareket %3,22 oldu. Bu, son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredeki en sert tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Gerileme, nisan ay\u0131nda 150\u2019li seviyelerin ortas\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fi sonland\u0131rd\u0131 ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte uzun \u00fcst g\u00f6lgeli bir mum b\u0131rakt\u0131 (g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yukar\u0131 deneme yap\u0131l\u0131p kapan\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f geldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterir).<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde Japon yetkililer uyar\u0131lar yapt\u0131. Nikkei\u2019ye g\u00f6re Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) yen al\u0131p dolar satarak piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti. Haberde, bunun 2024\u2019te yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar kullan\u0131lan s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bu yana ilk m\u00fcdahale oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc olarak Fed faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,50-%3,75, BoJ politika faizi ise %0,75 olarak aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Gelecek hafta takvimde, Per\u015fembe kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan sonra Tokyo T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) ve \u00fc\u00e7 tatil bulunuyor: Anayasa G\u00fcn\u00fc (Cumartesi), Ye\u015fillik G\u00fcn\u00fc (Pazar) ve \u00c7ocuk Bayram\u0131 (Pazartesi).<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer kalemler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cLabour Cash Earnings\u201d (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n nakit \u00fccret\/maa\u015f art\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisi) ve BoJ toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131. Bir saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 156,66\u2019da, 160,30 seviyesi diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviye) olarak not edildi.<\/p>\n
Sert m\u00fcdahale nedeniyle USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert dalgalanmas\u0131) bir s\u00fcre devam etmesi beklenebilir. Tek g\u00fcnde %3,22\u2019lik sal\u0131n\u0131m, yen opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; benzeri 2022 sonundaki m\u00fcdahalelerde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu tablo, her iki y\u00f6nde b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketlerden kazanmay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201cstraddle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat sert oynarsa de\u011ferlenir) daha anlaml\u0131 k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Temel mesele, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahalesi ile k\u00fcresel faiz politikas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki. 2024\u2019te Japonya\u2019ya 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde maliyet yazan m\u00fcdahaleler, Fed faizi belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yende yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici rahatlama sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut tabloda Fed %3,50-%3,75, BoJ %0,75 seviyesinde oldu\u011fundan \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri aramak) motivasyonu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor. Bu da m\u00fcdahale ile yarat\u0131lan yen de\u011ferlenmesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 olmama riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta Japonya\u2019daki tatiller nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n daha s\u0131\u011f kalmas\u0131 (i\u015flem hacminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi), sert ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zor hareket riskini y\u00fckseltiyor. ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi (Non-Farm Payrolls; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) ise ana tetikleyici. Son d\u00f6nemde ABD istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor; en son veride Nisan 2026\u2019da 175 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon; daha kal\u0131c\u0131 e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir) %3,6 ile y\u00fcksek seyrediyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu (faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) destekleyebilir ve USD\/JPY\u2019nin yeniden 160\u2019a do\u011fru toparlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu senaryoda k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call; y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefler) taktik ama\u00e7l\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan 160,30 b\u00f6lgesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 haline gelmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu alan, y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin m\u00fcdahale seviyesini a\u015fmakta zorlanabilece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla \u201ccall spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk-kazan\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131 kuran spread stratejisi; genelde prim geliri hedeflenir) i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lge olarak izlenebilir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta net bir destek (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131mlar\u0131n gelme ihtimali y\u00fcksek seviye) g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemesi, \u00f6zellikle ABD verileri zay\u0131fl\u0131k sinyali verirse Japon otoritelerden yeni bir sert hamle riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefler) korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok m\u00fcdahale mi geliyor? USD\/JPY saatler i\u00e7inde 160,75\u2019ten 155,55\u2019e inerek %2,25 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; zirveden dibe %3,22 ile 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc. Oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131, 160,30 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45914"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45914\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45914"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}