Tayvan, ihracat ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen i\u00e7 talebin deste\u011fiyle 1\u00c726\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %13,69\u2019a ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 2026\u2019n\u0131n tamam\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin, \u00f6nceki %7,7 tahmininin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak %9\u2019u a\u015fmas\u0131 ve 2025\u2019teki %8,68\u2019in de \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Geli\u015fen teknoloji uygulamalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 talebin, imalat (sanayi \u00fcretimi) ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cy\u00fcksek baz etkisi\u201d (ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminin zaten \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) nedeniyle man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 gerileyebilir.<\/p>\n
2026 man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki genel art\u0131\u015f) tahmini %1,9\u2019dan %2,0\u2019ye y\u00fckseltildi. Enflasyonun 1\u00c726\u2019daki %1,2 seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda ortalama yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,3 olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n 2026 boyunca politika faizini (bankalar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini belirleyen temel faiz) %2,00\u2019de tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Tayvan dolar\u0131 ve yerel faizlerde k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Tayvan dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda, TCMB\u2019nin (Tayvan Merkez Bankas\u0131) sabit politika duru\u015fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomiye ra\u011fmen belirgin bir de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131 beklenmemesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. USD\/TWD (ABD dolar\u0131\/Tayvan dolar\u0131 paritesi) son bir ayd\u0131r 30,50 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta seyretti; bunun s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131. Kurda oynakl\u0131k satmak (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan prim geliri hedefleyen opsiyon i\u015flemleri) bu paritede cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201ck\u0131sa straddle\/strangle\u201d (kurun dar aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte satarak prim toplama stratejileri).<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te de benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: y\u0131l geneli %8,68\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir politikas\u0131 nedeniyle paray\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe ta\u015f\u0131mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, TWD\u2019nin bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 2025 sonlar\u0131nda k\u00fcresel tedarik zinciri endi\u015feleri nedeniyle opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131nda (gelecekteki dalgalanmaya dair beklentiyi yans\u0131tan primlerde) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin enflasyon tahmininin %2,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle \u201cani enflasyon \u015foku\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenmekle birlikte, y\u0131l i\u00e7inde s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131, uzun vadeli \u201cfaiz taban\u0131\u201d (faiz belirli bir seviyenin alt\u0131na inerse \u00f6deme yapan koruma arac\u0131) ya da \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (mevcut kura g\u00f6re kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 zor; genelde daha ucuz primli) TWD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Tayvan\u2019da 1\u00c726 b\u00fcy\u00fcme %13,69\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; 2026 tahmini %9\u2019u a\u015fabilir. Enflasyon %2,0, faiz %2\u2019de sabit. USD\/TWD 30,50 band\u0131: opsiyonla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45913","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45913"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45913\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45913"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45913"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45913"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}