Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mart ay\u0131 mali dengesi 110,1 milyar peso a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Bu, \u00f6nceki 50,733 milyar pesoluk a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6re daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n
Denge, \u00f6nceki veriye k\u0131yasla 59,367 milyar peso daha fazla eksiye ge\u00e7ti. Veriler, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mart ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mali a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n -110,1 milyar pesoya h\u0131zl\u0131 geni\u015flemesi, para birimi \u00fczerinde an\u0131nda ve belirgin bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. USD\/MXN kuru 17,90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda; bu hareket, piyasan\u0131n kamu maliyesindeki disipline dair endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Meksika varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 daha riskli fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
En do\u011frudan strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda pesoda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine pozisyon almak. USD\/MXN al\u0131m opsiyonu (kur belirli bir seviyenin \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131karsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak ya da peso vadeli i\u015flem kontrat\u0131 satmak (ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sabit fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f yaparak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak) de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u201c\u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen kur dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fckseliyor; bu da opsiyonlar\u0131n pahalanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geldi\u011finden erken hareket etmek daha avantajl\u0131 olabilir. Son veriler, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda paritenin may\u0131s sonuna kadar 18,20 seviyesine dokunma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %65 olarak fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu bozulma, Banxico\u2019nun (Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131) manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir; faiz indirimi ihtimalini azalt\u0131p, pesoyu savunmak i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Nisan enflasyon verisi de %4,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faizden yana) duru\u015funu destekliyor. Bu nedenle, TIIE bankalararas\u0131 faiz oran\u0131na (Meksika\u2019da bankalar\u0131n birbirine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 referans faiz) ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (faiz\/kura dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 3-6 ayda daha y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisine pozisyon almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Risk art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kredi piyasas\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Meksika\u2019n\u0131n 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS\u2019i 15 baz puandan fazla geni\u015fledi. CDS (kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131), \u00fclkenin borcunu \u00f6deyememe riskine kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta primi gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r; y\u00fckselmesi risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu olumsuz hava, Meksika borsas\u0131n\u0131 ve IPC endeksini bask\u0131layabilir. iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) gibi geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (piyasa d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Meksika\u2019n\u0131n mart mali a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 110,1 milyar pesoya s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: peso bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda, USD\/MXN 17,90 \u00fcst\u00fcnde. Opsiyonlar 18,20 ihtimalini %65 fiyatl\u0131yor; CDS geni\u015fliyor, Banxico \u015fahinle\u015febilir, borsaya risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45910","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45910"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45910\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45910"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45910"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45910"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}