ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD\u2019de ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin tahminlerin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131l sonra ilk kez d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmesinin ard\u0131ndan per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 98,10 civar\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD GSYH\u2019si (bir \u00fclkenin toplam \u00fcretimi\/ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc) 1. \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f h\u00e2li) %2 artt\u0131; beklenti %2,3\u2019t\u00fc. \u0130lk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 25 Nisan\u2019da biten haftada 215 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 189 bine indi; bu seviye yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nikkei gazetesinin 160 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yetkililerin yen al\u0131p dolar satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (kur m\u00fcdahalesi) yazmas\u0131yla 156,50\u2019ye do\u011fru geriledi. \u00dcst d\u00fczey yetkililer, haber \u00f6ncesinde olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar konusunda uyar\u0131larda bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) %2\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,1730 civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri T\u00dcFE (enflasyon), GSYH ve HICP\u2019yi (uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) kapsad\u0131; genel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD, BoE\u2019nin (\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizi 8\u20131 oyla %3,75\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 1,3610\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131. AUD\/USD, \u00c7in verileri ve zay\u0131f dolar\u0131n deste\u011fiyle 0,7200\u2019ye y\u00f6neldi.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.620 dolara do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken, WTI (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 107 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra varil ba\u015f\u0131na 102 dolar civar\u0131na geriledi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler: Avustralya 1\u00c7 \u00dcFE (\u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131), \u0130svi\u00e7re mart perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, Kanada nisan imalat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) ve ABD ISM imalat PMI (ABD\u2019de imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn nabz\u0131).<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131 iki kanaldan bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz konusunda daha temkinli kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok uzun y\u0131llar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinde olmas\u0131, istihdam\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, faiz indirimi beklentilerinin (piyasan\u0131n gelecekte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz fiyatlamas\u0131) abart\u0131l\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesi en kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k. 2024 ilkbahar\u0131ndaki benzer m\u00fcdahalelerde oldu\u011fu gibi, ilk ad\u0131m genelde son ad\u0131m olmuyor. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019de y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) beklenebilir. Bu ortam, opsiyon (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) kullananlar i\u00e7in geni\u015f fiyat hareketlerinden yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 yaratabilir; z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131.<\/p>\n
ECB ve BoE faizleri sabit tutarken, Fed\u2019in daha temkinli kalma ihtimali euro ve sterlini destekleyebilir. Sterlin\/dolar, \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinde. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %5,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyretmesi, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ve BoE\u2019nin yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gitmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, GBP\/USD\u2019de uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131, hem zay\u0131f ABD dolar\u0131ndan hem de Avustralya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesinden destek al\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in son Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisinin alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r 50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, emtia para birimleri (emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin paralar\u0131) i\u00e7in olumlu bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Alt\u0131n da zay\u0131f dolar\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckseliyor; ancak ons fiyat\u0131 4.600 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeyken y\u00f6n\u00fc, reel getirilerdeki (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f faiz) de\u011fi\u015fimlere daha duyarl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekildi. Ancak zay\u0131f dolar, di\u011fer para birimleriyle al\u0131m yapanlar i\u00e7in petrol\u00fc ucuzlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. K\u00fcresel talep belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) raporlar\u0131nda ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda d\u00fczenli azalma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, t\u00fcketimin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n (OPEC ve m\u00fcttefik \u00fcreticiler) \u00fcretim disiplininin, 2024 ve 2025\u2019te oldu\u011fu gibi sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerini engellemede etkili olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyal al\u0131yor: zay\u0131f ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle DXY 98,10\u2019a gerilerken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yen m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi sarst\u0131. Euro\/sterlin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi, petrol geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45909\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}