DBS Group Research, Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoT) politika faizini 2026 sonuna kadar %1,00 seviyesinde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Faiz, 29 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda oy birli\u011fiyle (t\u00fcm \u00fcyelerin ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde oy vermesi) %1,00\u2019de b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Bu tahmin, daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foklar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon risklerine dayan\u0131yor. \u201cArz \u015foku\u201d, mal arz\u0131n\u0131n aniden azalmas\u0131yla fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi demektir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 kesinti riski de \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu ko\u015fullar, \u201cstagflasyon\u201d (ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131\/durmas\u0131yla enflasyonun ayn\u0131 anda y\u00fckselmesi) bask\u0131s\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
DBS, 2026 man\u015fet enflasyon (genel t\u00fcketici enflasyonu) tahminini %0,5\u2019ten %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. 2026\u2019da enflasyonun, BoT\u2019nin %1\u2013%3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ilk kez 2023\u2019ten beri kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
DBS, 2026 i\u00e7in GSYH (Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %1,6 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, BoT\u2019nin %1,5\u2019lik tahminine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
Rapor, b\u00fcy\u00fcme sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e veya enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde artmad\u0131k\u00e7a BoT\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Haberde i\u00e7eri\u011fin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi not ediliyor.<\/p>\n
BoT\u2019nin 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131nda politika faizini %1,00\u2019de tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, k\u0131sa vadede faiz y\u00f6n\u00fcne oynanan i\u015flemlerin (faizin artaca\u011f\u0131\/azalaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u201cy\u00f6nsel\u201d pozisyonlar) kazan\u00e7 ihtimalini azalt\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faizlerin yatay kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanan stratejilere y\u00f6nelebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131. \u201cOpsiyon\u201d, belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u201cOynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d ise fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplama ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flemlerdir. Bu uzun s\u00fcreli \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu, 29 Nisan\u2019daki oy birli\u011fi karar\u0131na dayan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi zor bir tablo var. 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisi %1,4 ile zay\u0131f geldi. Nisan man\u015fet enflasyonu ise Orta Do\u011fu gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle %2,7\u2019ye h\u0131zland\u0131. Stagflasyon ortam\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131yor ve faizi sabit tutmay\u0131 en olas\u0131 senaryo haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu bask\u0131, Tayland baht\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine i\u015faret ediyor. Durgun ekonomi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, para birimini \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131\u011fa yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha az cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Baht da bunu yans\u0131tt\u0131; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %4\u2019ten fazla de\u011fer kaybederek 37,50 civar\u0131na geriledi.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve y\u00fcksek enflasyon \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumsuz. \u015eirketler artan girdi maliyetleri (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan enerji ve hammadde gibi maliyetler) ve zay\u0131flayan talep ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kal\u0131rken, SET Endeksi\u2019nde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk art\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) amac\u0131yla endeks \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u201cPut opsiyonu\u201d, fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flama veya portf\u00f6y\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigortalama arac\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok uyar\u0131s\u0131: DBS, Tayland Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi 2026 sonuna dek %1,00\u2019de tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Stagflasyon riski, enflasyon tahmini %2,5, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme; bahtta bask\u0131, hisselerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45908\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}