Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 730 puan ya da %1,5 y\u00fckseldi. Endeks gece boyunca 48.500\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131ndaki dipten 49.600\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerindeki zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji hisseleri gerilerken S&P 500 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 artt\u0131, Nasdaq Bile\u015fik Endeksi ise %0,2 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Caterpillar hisseleri, beklentilerin \u00fczerinde sonu\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k gelir tahminini (y\u0131l geneli sat\u0131\u015f beklentisi) y\u00fckseltmesi sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Di\u011fer sanayi hisseleri de y\u00fckselerek Dow\u2019u destekledi.<\/p>\n
Meta yakla\u015f\u0131k %9 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eirket, sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex: fabrika, veri merkezi, ekipman gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131) tahminini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve kullan\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Microsoft yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 geriledi; bu y\u0131l sermaye harcamas\u0131n\u0131n 190 milyar dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn de bellek maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la: ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (mevsimsel etkiyi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131p y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f) bazda %2 oldu; %2,3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 2025\u2019in 4. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Mart man\u015fet PCE enflasyonu (ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi: Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5, \u00e7ekirdek PCE (enerji ve g\u0131da hari\u00e7) %3,2 oldu. \u0130lk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 189 bin ile 215 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam Maliyet Endeksi (\u00fccret ve yan haklardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 1. \u00e7eyrekte %0,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Chicago PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi: 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) nisan ay\u0131nda 49,2\u2019ye geriledi. WTI petrol (ABD tipi ham petrol) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde, Brent ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 114 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin, \u0130ran\u2019da olas\u0131 bir ablukaya haz\u0131rl\u0131k haberleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Fed, faizleri %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Oylama 8\u2019e 4 sonu\u00e7land\u0131; bu, 1992\u2019den bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 (karara kat\u0131lmayan \u00fcye say\u0131s\u0131) olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti. Piyasalar, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden ayarlad\u0131; g\u00f6reve gelmesi beklenen Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh, daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) kanatta yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinin yo\u011fun yapay zek\u00e2 harcamalar\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Nasdaq 100\u2019de z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) g\u00f6stergesi VXN 35\u2019in \u00fczerine t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Meta ve Microsoft gibi hisselerde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan daha dezavantajl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan) al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmak bir strateji olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, teknoloji taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek endi\u015fenin \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi opsiyon primini (opsiyonu satarken al\u0131nan fiyat) toplama amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Caterpillar\u2019daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans, fiziksel ekonomide (mal \u00fcretimi, in\u015faat, altyap\u0131 gibi alanlar) dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve k\u00fcresel talebin canl\u0131 olmas\u0131 bu e\u011filimi desteklerken, di\u011fer sanayi ve temel malzeme \u015firketlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 takip edilebilir. Sanayi sekt\u00f6r ETF\u2019i XLI (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon: bir sekt\u00f6r sepetini takip eden fon), alt\u0131 haftad\u0131r art arda giri\u015f (fonlara net para giri\u015fi) g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da daha geni\u015f bir sekt\u00f6r rotasyonunu (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir sekt\u00f6rden di\u011ferine y\u00f6nelmesi) teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in kendi i\u00e7inde ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, faiz patikas\u0131na dair belirsizli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. 8-4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcnme, bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortam, Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri (politika faizi beklentisini fiyatlayan vadeli kontratlar) \u00fczerinde straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri: ayn\u0131 vade ile hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; straddle\u2019da kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ayn\u0131, strangle\u2019da farkl\u0131 olur) alarak faizde iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen pozisyonlara uygun g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, piyasa i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel olmaya devam ediyor; bu da Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz indirimini gerek\u00e7elendirmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 ve \u0130stihdam Maliyet Endeksi\u2019nin y\u00fckselmesi, 2025\u2019teki enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu tablo, agresif faiz indirimi beklentilerinin erken ve riskli olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dow 730 puan s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p %1,5 y\u00fckselirken, Caterpillar %10\u2019luk ralliyle sanayiyi ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Big Tech\u2019te Meta-Microsoft d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve y\u00fcksek capex endi\u015fesi artt\u0131; Fed 8-4 b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Enflasyon diren\u00e7li.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45895\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}