USD\/CAD Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; 1,3612 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,53 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f veriler Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi haberleriyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girdi. Reuters, Nikkei\u2019ye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Yen al\u0131p ABD Dolar\u0131 satm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini yazd\u0131; ancak resmi bir do\u011frulama yok.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY, 160 seviyesini test ettikten sonra %2\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu seviye, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Japonya\u2019n\u0131n piyasaya m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,16 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,80 geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD GSYH\u2019si (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f (\u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131ll\u0131k h\u0131za \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Bu, \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekteki %0,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde olsa da %2,3 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. PCE fiyat endeksi (Fed\u2019in izledi\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) martta ayl\u0131k %0,7 artt\u0131; \u015fubattaki %0,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcnde ve Haziran 2022\u2019den beri en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek PCE (oynak kalemler olan g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) ayl\u0131k %0,3 artt\u0131; %0,4\u2019ten geriledi ve beklentiyle uyumlu geldi. Kanada\u2019da GSYH \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k %0,2 y\u00fckseldi; ocaktaki %0,1\u2019in \u00fcst\u00fcnde ve beklentiye paralel.<\/p>\n
Kanada ekonomisinde ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,7 h\u0131zla seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Riskler aras\u0131nda ABD tarifeleri (ithalata ek vergi), CUSMA\u2019n\u0131n (ABD-Meksika-Kanada Serbest Ticaret Anla\u015fmas\u0131) yenilenmesine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve Orta Do\u011fu gerginli\u011fi yer al\u0131yor. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi s\u00fcrerken, deniz ablukas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresine ili\u015fkin planlama haberleri petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD i\u00e7in daha olas\u0131 y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na inerek 98,16\u2019ya gerilemesi \u00f6nemli bir teknik i\u015faret (grafik ve fiyat seviyelerine dayal\u0131 piyasa sinyali). Bu, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 104-106 band\u0131ndan h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. Zay\u0131fl\u0131k hem ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131ndan hem de b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinden (piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla kur seviyesini etkileme) kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin Yeni korumak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale etmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair beklenti, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki genel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ana tetikleyicilerinden biri. Benzer durum 2022\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131 dahil di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Veri taraf\u0131nda, ABD\u2019de ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %2 ile beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha temkinli olmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Man\u015fet enflasyon (genel enflasyon) y\u00fcksek kalsa da, Fed\u2019in daha yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019deki yava\u015flama, yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu durum Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoC) farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor; Kanada\u2019n\u0131n daha istikrarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc BoC\u2019nin faiz indirimi i\u00e7in daha az bask\u0131 hissetmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131da tutarak Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na destek veriyor. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret ko\u015fullar\u0131 (ihra\u00e7 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin fiyat\u0131\/ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyat\u0131 dengesi) Kanada lehine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019deki gibi y\u00fcksek petrol d\u00f6nemlerinde CAD\u2019de belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fclebiliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler), bu ortam USD\/CAD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan \u201cput\u201d opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Artan oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131), opsiyonlar\u0131 riski net tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in daha kullan\u0131\u015fl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Vade olarak May\u0131s sonu veya Haziran ve 1,3500 civar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun i\u015flem hakk\u0131 tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 fiyat) izlenebilir.<\/p>\n
Riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in \u201cay\u0131\u201d put spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle kurulan, maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren opsiyon kombinasyonu) kullan\u0131labilir. Bu strateji, bir put opsiyonu al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; b\u00f6ylece ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti azal\u0131r. USD\/CAD\u2019de daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flarken, azami kazan\u00e7 da s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131r. Bu, son d\u00f6nemdeki oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha kontroll\u00fc bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar endeksindeki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve olas\u0131 Japon yeni m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/CAD\u2019i 1,3612\u2019ye \u00e7ekti. Zay\u0131f ABD verileri, Kanada b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve 95$ \u00fczeri petrol CAD\u2019i destekleyip a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45894"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45894\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}