\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank of England), politika faizini (Bank Rate: bankalar\u0131n merkez bankas\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanma faizi) %3,75\u2019te tuttu. Karar bekleniyordu, ancak \u201cpas ge\u00e7me\u201d de\u011fil, bilin\u00e7li bir tercih olarak sunuldu.<\/p>\n
Oylama 8\u20131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131; Huw Pill faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131. Yetkililer, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ekonomiye yay\u0131lmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek enflasyon risklerine dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Guvern\u00f6r Andrew Bailey, k\u00fcresel enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ilk etkisinin (enerji fiyat\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frudan y\u00fckselmesi) para politikas\u0131yla durdurulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ama\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu \u015foklar\u0131n \u00fccretlere ve \u015firketlerin genel fiyat belirleme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bailey, somut kan\u0131t olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemenin riskli oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. Banka, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 yay\u0131l\u0131rsa erken ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Banka ayr\u0131ca daha s\u0131k\u0131 politikaya (faizlerin y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131) h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 durmak i\u00e7in faizleri indirmenin yerine sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki krize ba\u011fl\u0131. Enerji \u015fokunun uzamas\u0131, enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoE, %2 enflasyon hedefiyle Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirler. Politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirerek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini ve \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019ni etkiler.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon hedefin \u00fczerindeyken, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Sterlin\u2019i destekleyebilir; faiz indirimi ise zay\u0131flatabilir. QE (niceliksel gev\u015feme: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasadan tahvil gibi varl\u0131klar alarak para ve kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi) genelde Sterlin\u2019i zay\u0131flatabilir. QT (niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma: merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi, \u00f6rne\u011fin tahvil stokunu azaltmas\u0131) ise Sterlin\u2019i destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d de\u011fil, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc mesaj\u0131 olarak okunmal\u0131. 8\u20131\u2019lik oylama ve tek \u00fcyenin art\u0131\u015f istemesi, kurul i\u00e7inde \u015fahin bir e\u011filime (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha sert duru\u015f) i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyona tolerans\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler de bu kayg\u0131lar\u0131 destekliyor: Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) martta %3,2\u2019de kald\u0131; h\u00e2l\u00e2 %2 hedefin belirgin \u00fczerinde. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha kritik olan \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %6,0 seviyesinde y\u00fcksek. Bu, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Guvern\u00f6r\u00fcn ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istedi\u011fi \u201cikinci tur etki\u201d tam da bu: enerji gibi bir \u015fokun \u00fccretlere, ard\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f fiyatlara ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131 nedeniyle zorla\u015f\u0131yor. Jeopolitik gerilimler Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor; varil fiyat\u0131 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 seyrediyor. Bu d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonuna do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Fiyatlar\u0131 kontrol etmek ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flamay\u0131 \u00f6nlemek aras\u0131nda zor bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 (opsiyon, swap gibi dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi bekleyen pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor. \u201cY\u00fcksek faiz daha uzun s\u00fcre\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu da faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131: de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demesini sabit faizle de\u011fi\u015ftiren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) sabit faiz \u00f6demek (pay fixed: ileride faizler y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rsa korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 tercih) yoluyla korunmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. K\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda (faiz seviyesine ba\u011fl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 beklenebilir; piyasa bu erken s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2023\u2019teki h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Banka enflasyon beklentileri kontrolden \u00e7\u0131karsa (\u00e7apan\u0131n bozulmas\u0131: piyasan\u0131n enflasyon hedefinden kopmas\u0131) kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaktan \u00e7ekinmedi. Bu nedenle bu \u201c\u015fahin sabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131, daha g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimine daha yak\u0131n) merkez bankalar\u0131 olan \u00fclke para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Sterlin i\u00e7in destekleyici bir taban olu\u015fturabilir. Daha y\u00fcksek faizler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131 k\u00fcresel sermaye i\u00e7in daha cazip k\u0131labildi\u011finden, i\u015flem stratejileri GBP\u2019de yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate almal\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE\u2019den \u015fahin mesaj: Faiz %3,75\u2019te 8\u20131 ile sabit, tek \u00fcye art\u0131\u015f istedi. Bailey \u201cikinci tur\u201d \u00fccret-fiyat riskine vurgu yapt\u0131; enerji\/jeopolitik bask\u0131 Sterlin\u2019e destek verebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45893\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}