ABD\u2019de 4 haftal\u0131k Hazine bonosu ihalesinde getiri %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. \u00d6nceki ihalede getiri %3,595\u2019ti.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) yak\u0131n vadeli para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor. 4 haftal\u0131k bono ihale faizinin %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, 2025 boyunca \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan \u201cfaiz indirimleri s\u00fcrecek\u201d varsay\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne (faizleri kademeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme s\u00fcreci) ara verebilece\u011fi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re g\u00fcncellemesi gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu geli\u015fme, Mart 2026 enflasyon verisinde fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n beklenenden daha diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %3,1 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son veriye g\u00f6re 215 bin yeni istihdam yarat\u0131ld\u0131. Bu veriler, Fed\u2019in yaz boyunca faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131na gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturabilir; piyasan\u0131n daha \u00f6nce fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryonun tersine.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin SOFR\u2019a ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlar (SOFR: gecelik teminatl\u0131 repo faizi; dolar piyasas\u0131nda referans k\u0131sa vadeli faiz) bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l ek faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha da azaltaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine dayan\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde, Fed bir dizi indirim sonras\u0131 duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda getiri e\u011frisinin (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki tahvil faizleri) k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sm\u0131 (k\u0131sa vadeli faizler) bir s\u00fcre y\u00fckselme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterebilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in izleyece\u011fi yola ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckselmesine de i\u015faret edebilir. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) \u00fczerinde straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan dalgalanma art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) almak, uzun vadeli faizlerin y\u00f6n\u00fcne kesin bahis yapmadan bu belirsizli\u011fi de\u011ferlendirme y\u00f6ntemi olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l faizlerin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamdan faydalanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme odakl\u0131 hisseler i\u00e7in olumsuz olabilir. Hisse pozisyonlar\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) amac\u0131yla ana endekslerde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak veya baz\u0131 teknoloji alanlar\u0131nda call spread (al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla kurulan, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 getiriyle hedefleyen strateji) satmak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde belirgin \u015fekilde ucuzlamayaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fiyle piyasan\u0131n zorlanmas\u0131 halinde tampon g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcr.<\/p>\n
ABD 4 haftal\u0131k bono faizi %3,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Piyasa Fed\u2019in indirimlerine ara verebilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Diren\u00e7li \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131p tahvil-opsiyon ve hisse hedge\u2019ini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45890","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45890"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45890\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45890"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45890"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45890"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}