Alt\u0131n, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,67 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.620 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir ayl\u0131k dip seviye olan 4.510 dolar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen bu toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen, alt\u0131n ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011fru ilerliyor.<\/p>\n
Hareket, Tokyo\u2019nun d\u00f6viz (FX: foreign exchange, yani \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 para birimi i\u015flemleri) m\u00fcdahalesi uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 izledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,28 civar\u0131nda, %0,68 eksideydi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik risk g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD, \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lana kadar \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 korurken \u0130ran limanlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 devam ettirme \u00e7abalar\u0131yla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bir plan\u0131n da de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir; bu da faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n i\u00e7in olumsuzdur. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), faizleri %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Karar 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131; bu, 1992\u2019den bu yana en \u00e7ok kar\u015f\u0131 oyun \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, faizlerin 2026 boyunca sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Nisan 2027\u2019ye kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali ise bir hafta \u00f6nce %0,8 iken %23,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta bitiyor; Kevin Warsh ise Senato\u2019nun (ABD\u2019de onay mercii) genel oylamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda (annualised: \u00e7eyreklik verinin y\u0131l geneline \u00e7evrilmi\u015f hali) %2,0 oldu; \u00f6nceki %0,5 ve beklenti olan %2,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Mart PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures: ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 fiyat endeksi, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ayl\u0131k %0,7 artt\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (core: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) ayl\u0131k %0,3 y\u00fckseldi. 2022\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 toplam\u0131 1.136 ton oldu; yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun olu\u015fturdu\u011fu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bask\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu tablo, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Piyasada \u015fu an, gelecek y\u0131l bu d\u00f6neme kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rtte bir seviyesinde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, 4.685 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesine (resistance: fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) do\u011fru mevcut toparlanmay\u0131 temkinli de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019de 15 May\u0131s\u2019taki y\u00f6netim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Benzer bir dalgalanma 2018\u2019de Powell g\u00f6reve geldi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Komite i\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 1992\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeyken, yeni ba\u015fkandan gelecek her politika sinyali sert fiyat hareketlerini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, belirli bir y\u00f6n yerine b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Opsiyonlar (options: belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bunun i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alma; fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareket etmesine oynayan strateji) almak, fiyat ister Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle y\u00fckselsin ister Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin (hawkish: enflasyonu gerekirse daha y\u00fcksek faizle dizginlemekten yana) bir duru\u015fuyla 4.500 dolar deste\u011finin (support: fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) alt\u0131na sarks\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmalardan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Burada ama\u00e7, May\u0131s ortas\u0131na giderken \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d beklentisini ta\u015f\u0131makt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, 1970\u2019lere benzer bir tablo sunuyor: jeopolitik \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve petrol \u015foklar\u0131, faizler y\u00fckselirken bile alt\u0131n\u0131 rekorlara ta\u015f\u0131yabilmi\u015fti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Bu nedenle al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call: fiyat y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) jeopolitik risklere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma arac\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 riski piyasada yeterince fiyatlanm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bu makro etkenlerin alt\u0131nda ise g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemesi gereken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziksel talep var. On y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki rekor al\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, merkez bankalar\u0131 2025 boyunca ve bu y\u0131l da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131c\u0131 olmaya devam etti; D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi (World Gold Council) verileri bunu teyit ediyor. Bu kurumsal al\u0131mlar, fiyat i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturuyor; 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na olas\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 sarkmalar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taleple kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.620 dolara s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131: Dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, jeopolitik risk t\u0131rmand\u0131. Ancak enflasyon ve \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019de 15 May\u0131s belirsizli\u011fiyle oynakl\u0131k artabilir; 4.685 diren\u00e7, 4.500 destek kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45889\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}