Reuters\u2019a konu\u015fan kaynaklar, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l faizleri en az iki kez art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Kaynaklara g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmada \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmazsa ilk art\u0131\u015f Haziran\u2019da gelebilir.<\/p>\n
ECB, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit b\u0131rakt\u0131. Banka, y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faizi art\u0131rma gibi ad\u0131mlar) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n
Kimli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan kaynaklar, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki aksama s\u00fcrer ve spot Brent (anl\u0131k teslim petrol kontrat\u0131) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa Haziran\u2019da ad\u0131m beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusunda uzun g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken bir kaynak, Nisan yerine Haziran\u2019\u0131n de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131 bir kaynak, sonraki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu ifade etti. Kayna\u011fa g\u00f6re tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc iyile\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu seviye, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen kriz d\u00f6neminden olduk\u00e7a uzak. Eurostat verilerine g\u00f6re Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde man\u015fet enflasyon (genel enflasyon oran\u0131) %3,1\u2019e geriledi; 2025 ba\u015f\u0131nda %7\u2019nin \u00fczerindeydi. ECB\u2019nin politika faizi (bankan\u0131n belirledi\u011fi ana faiz oran\u0131) ge\u00e7en Haziran\u2019dan beri %4,75\u2019te kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa art\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimle birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (faiz indirimi ve daha gev\u015fek politika e\u011filimi) bir ECB ihtimalini dikkate alabilir. Faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilen faiz takaslar\u0131 (interest rate swap: iki taraf\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini takas etti\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha cazip hale geliyor. Tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k faizin ne kadar y\u00fckselece\u011fi de\u011fil, ilk 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimin (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n %1\u2019i; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan) ne zaman gelece\u011fi.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131k (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareket etmesi) \u00f6nemli bir unsur; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc enflasyon yava\u015flasa da faiz indiriminin zaman\u0131 net de\u011fil. Trader\u2019lar, ECB\u2019nin hizmet enflasyonunun (\u00f6zellikle hizmet fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f) inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle gev\u015femeyi beklenenden uzun s\u00fcre erteleyebilece\u011fi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 Bund vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (Almanya tahvili vadeli kontrat\u0131) opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durum, sadece faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne do\u011frudan bahis yerine belirsizlikten faydalanan stratejilerin de mant\u0131kl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam euro a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u00f6nemli. Faiz indirimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e euro, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, EUR\/USD paritesinde (euro\/dolar kuru) olas\u0131 ek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynayan opsiyonlarda (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6rebilir. Ana risk, jeopolitik gerilimin aniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 veya beklenmedik bir enflasyon verisinin ECB\u2019nin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimini geciktirmesi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB\u2019de s\u00fcrpriz mesaj: Kaynaklara g\u00f6re jeopolitik gerilim ve 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki Brent, Haziran\u2019da ilk art\u0131\u015fla bu y\u0131l en az iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; piyasa ise indirimleri fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45888"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45888\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}