Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB), Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde artan **stagflasyon** (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu veya durgunla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) risklerine ra\u011fmen **faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini belirleyen politika faizi) de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Bankan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131yla birlikte ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, ilk \u00e7eyrekte **GSYH** (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: bir ekonomide \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Enflasyon sinyalleri ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Almanya\u2019da **man\u015fet enflasyon** (t\u00fcm kalemleri i\u00e7eren genel enflasyon) artarken, **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler d\u0131\u015far\u0131da b\u0131rak\u0131larak hesaplanan enflasyon) geriledi.<\/p>\n
AMB, **Banka Kredi Anketi**ne (Bank Lending Survey: bankalar\u0131n kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve kredi talebine dair anket) dayanarak **kredi standartlar\u0131n\u0131n** (bankalar\u0131n kredi verirken uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fartlar\u0131n) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve **kredi talebinin** zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirtti. Bu ko\u015fullar, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken ekonomik faaliyetin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Raporda, AMB\u2019nin 2011\u2019de enflasyonu kontrol etmek i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n daha sonra Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ekonomik durgunlu\u011fun derinle\u015fmesiyle ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi\u011fi ifade ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n, **d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 arz \u015foku** (exogenous supply shock: enerji fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 gibi ekonomi d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen ve \u00fcr\u00fcn\/hizmet arz\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131p fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselten \u015fok) s\u0131ras\u0131nda faiz art\u0131rmaya isteksiz olabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca AMB\u2019nin **fiyat istikrar\u0131 g\u00f6revi** (price stability mandate: enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma g\u00f6revi) hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, olas\u0131 bir ekonomik gerilemeyi a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131rma endi\u015fesi vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
AMB\u2019nin, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ile zay\u0131f ekonomiyi destekleme aras\u0131nda zor bir tercih nedeniyle bir s\u00fcre daha beklemede kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin yaln\u0131zca %0,1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterirken, Mart ay\u0131 man\u015fet enflasyonu enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla %3,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n AMB\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n bu y\u0131l ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini abart\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bankan\u0131n temel kayg\u0131s\u0131 ekonomik gerilemeyi k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015ftirmek. Bu durum, Avrupa faizlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 **vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin** (futures: gelecekte belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri azald\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. AMB\u2019nin 2011\u2019de resesyon \u00f6ncesi faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cpolitika hatas\u0131\u201d haf\u0131zas\u0131, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde etkiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temkinli duru\u015fun, \u00f6zellikle daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimli) merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 Euro \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (**Fed**) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, **faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n** (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine neden olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bunu, **EUR\/USD** paritesinde **sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (put option: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen opsiyon) almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda stagflasyon riski, b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan zorlu bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. 2024 ve 2025\u2019teki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminde piyasalar\u0131n zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, mevcut tabloya benzerlik vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 belirsizlik, Euro Stoxx 50 gibi endekslerde **\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n** (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok **fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7** hedefleyen stratejileri daha etkili k\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki son Banka Kredi Anketi de, \u015firketlere y\u00f6nelik kredi standartlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu **kredi s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131** (credit squeeze: krediye eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131), ekonomi \u00fczerinde do\u011fal bir fren g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rerek merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015finin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 fiilen yap\u0131yor. Bu da, arz kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku s\u00fcrerken AMB\u2019nin politikay\u0131 daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya son derece isteksiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Stagflasyon g\u00f6lgesinde AMB frene bast\u0131: faizler sabit. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k enflasyon sinyalleri belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; Euro bask\u0131lanabilir, volatilite y\u00fcksek kalabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45886","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45886","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45886"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45886\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45886"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45886"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45886"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}