ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kapanmay\u0131 sona erdirmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini, isminin a\u00e7\u0131klanmamas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla konu\u015fan bir yetkili Associated Press\u2019e s\u00f6yledi. Haberde, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 giri\u015fimlere at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Masadaki se\u00e7enekler, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmay\u0131 i\u00e7ermiyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u0130ran enerji sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 bu su yolundan engellemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, m\u00fcttefiklerle birlikte \u0130ran\u2019a \u00f6detilecek bedeli (ek yapt\u0131r\u0131m, askeri\/siyasi bask\u0131 gibi) art\u0131rmaya odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Do\u011frudan tansiyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek yerine m\u00fcttefiklerle \u201ce\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc yan\u0131t\u201d konu\u015fulmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanman\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda s\u00f6ylentiler ve resmi a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla sert fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen \u201cstraddle\u201d stratejisini de\u011ferlendirebilir: Ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak. Bunu petrol borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 (ETF: borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinden yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 (piyasaya sunulan miktar) s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131. Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc) k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rarken, vadeli fiyat yap\u0131s\u0131 \u201cbackwardation\u201da d\u00f6nd\u00fc: Yak\u0131n vadeli kontratlar, ileri vadeli kontratlardan daha pahal\u0131. Bu ortamda, en yak\u0131n vadeli WTI veya Brent vadeli kontratta uzun pozisyon (fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynama) i\u00e7eren stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ayr\u0131ca son EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) verisi, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor (stok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc genelde fiyatlar i\u00e7in destekleyicidir).<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim, sadece enerji de\u011fil daha geni\u015f piyasalar\u0131 da sars\u0131yor. Bu haberle birlikte CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi, \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) %15 y\u00fckseldi; bu, 2025 sonundaki ilk t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fclen desene benziyor. VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) veya ilgili ETP\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren \u00fcr\u00fcn; ETF\/ETN gibi) piyasaya yay\u0131lan belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma (hedge) i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131t maliyetine ve k\u00fcresel ticarete hassas alanlarda bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi beklenebilir. Havayolu ETF\u2019lerinde ve bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2ha ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015firketlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama) makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k savunma sanayii y\u00fcklenicileri ve ABD i\u00e7i enerji \u00fcreticilerinde g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7lenme bekleniyor; bu \u015firketlerde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 daha cazip olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi petrol\u00fc yeniden ate\u015fledi: Trump kapanmay\u0131 bitirme yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor, m\u00fcttefiklerle \u0130ran\u2019a bedel art\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Brent 110$ \u00fcst\u00fc, backwardation ve VIX s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; opsiyonlarda straddle\/hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}