{"id":45880,"date":"2026-04-30T20:27:03","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T20:27:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/55545-dolarlik-zirvesinin-ardindan-microsoft-ii-dalgasina-girerek-35607-dolarda-dip-yapti-ve-uc-dalgali-bir-duzeltme-baslatti\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T20:27:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T20:27:03","slug":"55545-dolarlik-zirvesinin-ardindan-microsoft-ii-dalgasina-girerek-35607-dolarda-dip-yapti-ve-uc-dalgali-bir-duzeltme-baslatti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/55545-dolarlik-zirvesinin-ardindan-microsoft-ii-dalgasina-girerek-35607-dolarda-dip-yapti-ve-uc-dalgali-bir-duzeltme-baslatti\/","title":{"rendered":"555,45 dolarl\u0131k zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan Microsoft, (II) dalgas\u0131na girerek 356,07 dolarda dip yapt\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltme ba\u015flatt\u0131."},"content":{"rendered":"

Microsoft (MSFT) 31 Temmuz 2025\u2019te 555,45 dolarla t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiyat daha sonra 28 Mart 2026\u2019da 356,07 dolara indi ve bu hareket dalga (II) olarak adland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

28 Mart 2026\u2019dan sonra hisse dalga (III) i\u00e7inde y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ift dipli\/duble d\u00fczeltme (iki kez benzer d\u00fczeltme yapma) riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in 555,45 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Mart Dibinden \u0130tibaren Dalga Yap\u0131s\u0131<\/h3>\n

356,07 dolarl\u0131k dipten sonra dalga (1) 386,29 dolarda bitti, dalga (2) ise 367,05 dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ard\u0131ndan dalga (3), 30 dakikal\u0131k grafikte (k\u0131sa vadeli zaman aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) 433,94 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Dalga (4) 404,61 dolara geriledi. Dalga (5) 445,24 dolara ula\u015ft\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece dalga ((1)) tamamland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi 28 Mart 2026\u2019dan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fi d\u00fczeltmek i\u00e7in dalga ((2)) i\u00e7inde bir geri \u00e7ekilme (d\u00fczeltme) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu d\u00fczeltmenin, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi (ana y\u00f6n) yeniden ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce \u00fc\u00e7 ya da yedi \u201csal\u0131n\u0131m\u201d (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede gidip gelmesi) olu\u015fturmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

\u201cPivot\u201d seviye (takip edilen kritik e\u015fik) 367,23 dolar olarak veriliyor. Fiyat 367,23 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, geri \u00e7ekilmelerin \u00fc\u00e7 ya da yedi sal\u0131n\u0131mla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Geri \u00c7ekilme \u0130\u00e7in Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

28 Mart\u2019taki dipten sonra gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, \u015fimdi d\u00fczeltme ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7indeyiz; bu hareket al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu pozitif (y\u00fckseli\u015f) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, temel verilerle (\u015firketin finansal performans\u0131) de destekleniyor: Microsoft 25 Nisan\u2019da 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; gelir beklentisini %4 a\u015ft\u0131 ve Azure bulut biriminde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %28 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bildirdi. Mevcut geri \u00e7ekilme, bir sonraki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n

Hissenin son diplerinin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasadan daha uzak; \u015fu an i\u00e7in de\u011fersiz) \u201cput kredi spread\u201d satmak (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli opsiyon geliri stratejisi: bir put sat\u0131p daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put alarak riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak) etkili bir y\u00f6ntemdir. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 404,61 dolarl\u0131k son dip seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 se\u00e7ilerek, May\u0131s veya Haziran 2026 vadelerinde 390 ya da 380 dolar seviyeleri hedeflenebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201czaman de\u011feri erimesinden\u201d (vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon priminin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) ve hissenin bu seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar; geri \u00e7ekilmelerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesine do\u011fru beklenen bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f baca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha do\u011frudan hedeflemek i\u00e7in, \u201cbull call spread\u201d almak (y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 strateji: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satarak maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek) alternatif olabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 420 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir \u201ccall\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu) al\u0131p, pozisyonu finanse etmek i\u00e7in 450 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call satabilir. 2023\u2019teki piyasa toparlanmas\u0131nda da benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: \u00f6nde gelen teknoloji hisseleri k\u0131sa s\u00fcre duraklad\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f trendlerine devam etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

En kritik seviye 367,23 dolardaki pivot (kilit e\u015fik). Bu deste\u011fin (fiyat\u0131 tutmas\u0131 beklenen seviye) alt\u0131na inilmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f dalga yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve daha derin, daha karma\u015f\u0131k bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret eder. Bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcm t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 ara\u00e7; opsiyon gibi) pozisyonlar\u0131nda, bu seviye k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa pozisyondan \u00e7\u0131kma veya korunma (hedge; zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ters\/dengeleyici i\u015flem) plan\u0131 olmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MSFT\u2019te f\u0131rsat penceresi mi a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor? Zirveden sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 dalga (III) y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrerken ((2)) d\u00fczeltmesi izleniyor; 367,23 pivot \u00fcst\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pozitif; put kredi\/bull call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45880","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45880","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45880"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45880\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}