ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), 24 Nisan\u2019da sona eren haftada do\u011fal gaz depolar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n 79 Bcf (milyar k\u00fcbik feet) oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bu rakam, 83 Bcf beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu hafta do\u011fal gaz depolar\u0131na beklenenden daha az gaz eklendi (depo art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/injection). Bu, piyasan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha s\u0131k\u0131 (arz\u0131n talebe g\u00f6re daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131) oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. 79 Bcf\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f, 83 Bcf\u2019lik piyasa ortalama tahmininin (konsens\u00fcs) alt\u0131nda. Bu durum, talebin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veya \u00fcretimin daha zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bullish: fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyen) s\u00fcrpriz, k\u0131sa vadeli havay\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirip yaz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki arz seviyelerinin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6zellikle Haziran ve Temmuz vadeli kontratlarda (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) k\u0131sa vadede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 beklemeli. Bu s\u0131k\u0131 denge, LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ihracat tesislerinden gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taleple de destekleniyor; bu tesisler k\u00fcresel talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in g\u00fcnde 14,5 Bcf\u2019in \u00fczerinde gaz \u00e7ekmeye devam ediyor. Biz, piyasa yaz\u0131n fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) primlerinin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131 da bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; yurti\u00e7i \u00fcretim 102 Bcf\/g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin Ortabat\u0131 ve Kuzeydo\u011fu b\u00f6lgelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sezon sonu so\u011fuk hava dalgas\u0131 da, \u0131s\u0131nma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak (\u0131s\u0131tma talebi) depo art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f olabilir. Bu tablo, 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen arz fazlas\u0131ndan (supply glut: piyasada fazla arz) farkl\u0131 ve o d\u00f6nem fiyatlar bask\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye (fiyatlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f) y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak daha temkinli bir tercih olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften pay almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m spreadi (call spread: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek seviyeden ba\u015fka bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir; \u00f6zellikle yaz ba\u015f\u0131 hava tahminleri normalden daha s\u0131cak seyrederse. Piyasa, bu s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n tek haftal\u0131k bir sapma m\u0131 yoksa kal\u0131c\u0131 bir e\u011filim mi oldu\u011funa dair i\u015faretlere hassas olacak.<\/p>\n
2020\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 (volatilite), \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ara mevsimde (shoulder season: k\u0131\u015f-yaz ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi) gelen benzer depo verisi s\u00fcrprizleriyle tetiklenmi\u015fti. 2025\u2019teki uzun s\u00fcren fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bu veri, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek bir taban fiyat\u0131n (price floor: fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesinin zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) olu\u015ftu\u011funu do\u011frulayan bir tetikleyici olabilir. Bu y\u00fczden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yaz vadeli kontratlarda devam eden al\u0131mlar ile a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyon miktar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (open interest: piyasada kapanmam\u0131\u015f toplam s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) izlemeli.<\/p>\n
Do\u011falgazda s\u00fcrpriz sinyal: EIA\u2019ya g\u00f6re 24 Nisan haftas\u0131nda depolar 79 Bcf artt\u0131; 83 Bcf beklenti alt\u0131. Daha s\u0131k\u0131 arz, LNG \u00e7eki\u015fi ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00fcretim yaz kontratlar\u0131n\u0131, opsiyon primlerini yukar\u0131 itebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45877","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45877"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45877\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45877"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45877"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45877"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}