ECB, politika faizini %2,0 seviyesinde sabit tuttu ve faizler i\u00e7in \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f bir yol a\u00e7\u0131klamadan, \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d ve \u201cher toplant\u0131da yeniden de\u011ferlendirme\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Banka, durumu yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fini belirtti. <\/p>\n
ECB, enflasyon i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini kaydetti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, daha uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin \u201ciyi \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f\u201d (piyasada ve hanehalk\u0131nda orta-uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin hedefe yak\u0131n ve istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131) olmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ECB ayr\u0131ca Mart ay\u0131ndaki temel senaryodan (bankan\u0131n o tarihteki ana tahmin \u00e7er\u00e7evesi) uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. <\/p>\n
Piyasalar, haziranda 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l sonuna kadar toplamda 75 baz puan\u0131n (0,75 y\u00fczde puan) biraz alt\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareketlerle yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. ECB, \u201ctepki fonksiyonu\u201dnun (banka kararlar\u0131n\u0131n hangi verilere ne kadar duyarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu anlatan karar \u00e7er\u00e7evesi) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l geli\u015fti\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. <\/p>\n
Makale, yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi. <\/p>\n
2025\u2019te, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6neminde ECB\u2019nin %2,0 faiz seviyesinden net bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 patikas\u0131 (izlenecek art\u0131\u015f ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n genel y\u00f6n\u00fc) sinyali verdi\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, Haziran 2025 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru fiyatlam\u0131\u015f; o y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 (para politikas\u0131n\u0131n daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi) \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, o d\u00f6nemdeki oynak (h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanan) enerji piyasalar\u0131yla yak\u0131ndan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. <\/p>\n
\u015eimdi politika faizi %3,25\u2019te kal\u0131rken tablo benzer, ancak daha karma\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisi (ay\u0131n tamam\u0131 bitmeden yay\u0131mlanan ilk tahmin) %2,8 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu; marttaki %2,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu \u201ckat\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (enflasyonun kolay gerilememesi), ECB\u2019nin bu y\u0131l beklenen faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in net mesaj vermesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/p>\n
Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Brent petrol son haftalarda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ge\u00e7en ay 80\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n alt seviyelerindeydi. Bu geli\u015fme, enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve ECB\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. <\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Euribor vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz t\u00fcrevleriyle (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasa, 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik faiz indirimi beklentilerini h\u0131zla azalt\u0131yor; fiyatlamalar bu y\u0131l 25 baz puanl\u0131k tek bir indirimin bile alt\u0131nda bir gev\u015feme (faizlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesi) ima ediyor. Gev\u015femenin gecikmesinden fayda sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler), \u00f6rne\u011fin faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip olabilir. <\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 duru\u015fu teyit edildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasadaki beklentilere g\u00f6re hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu belirsizlikten faydalanan stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte alarak sert hareketten yararlanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) de\u011ferlendirebilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc, enflasyon risklerinin ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, getiri e\u011frisi i\u015flemlerinde (farkl\u0131 vadelerdeki tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki farklara dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar) da f\u0131rsatlar yaratabilir. <\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ECB faizi sabit tutup \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d kald\u0131; enflasyon yukar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riskli. Piyasa Haziran\u2019da 25 bp art\u0131\u015f, y\u0131l sonuna yak\u0131n 75 bp fiyatl\u0131yor. Enerji pahal\u0131, belirsizlik y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45873"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45873\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}