ABD\u2019de Chicago PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; imalat ve hizmetlerde \u00fcretim, sipari\u015f ve istihdam gibi verilerle ekonominin nabz\u0131n\u0131 tutan anket g\u00f6stergesi) Nisan\u2019da 49,2 oldu. Bu seviye, 53 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaki de\u011fer, i\u015f faaliyetlerinde daralmaya i\u015faret eder. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen veri ile beklenti aras\u0131ndaki fark 3,8 puan.<\/p>\n
Chicago PMI\u2019\u0131n beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir uyar\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc imalatta b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklenirken daralma sinyali veriyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimine beklenenden daha erken ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Benzer bir tablo \u00fclke genelinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor: Nisan ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat raporu (\u00fclke genelinde imalat i\u00e7in PMI benzeri anket) 50,1\u2019e geriledi; bu seviye b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
Beklenmedik yava\u015flama, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r; bu da genellikle piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltir. Piyasa \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinen VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 14 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 18-20 band\u0131na y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu beklentiye g\u00f6re, VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ya da VIX vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi (futures; ileri tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan veri olumsuz, \u00f6zellikle sanayi ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri i\u00e7in. S&P 500\u2019de sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik k\u00e2r tahminlerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edilmesiyle bir geri \u00e7ekilme hedeflenebilir. Bu PMI verisi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin zirve olabilece\u011fine dair erken ve somut i\u015faretlerden biri.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011findeki \u201cyanl\u0131\u015f alarm\u201d unutulmamal\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde b\u00f6lgesel imalat verilerindeki benzer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yava\u015flama alg\u0131s\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015f, ancak ekonomi dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kal\u0131p yeniden h\u0131zlanm\u0131\u015f ve bir\u00e7ok \u201ca\u00e7\u0131\u011fa sat\u0131\u015f\u201d yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 (short-seller; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazanmak i\u00e7in bor\u00e7lan\u0131p sat\u0131\u015f yapan) zor durumda b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli olumsuz pozisyonlar almadan \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (non-farm payrolls; ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc verileriyle teyit aranmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu haberin en h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 alan, faiz vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131d\u0131r. D\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 olan Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurulun toplant\u0131s\u0131) faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 beklenebilir. 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir Fed \u00e7izgisini yans\u0131tacak \u015fekilde SOFR vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (SOFR; ABD\u2019de gecelik risksiz faiz oran\u0131, vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri faiz beklentisini fiyatlar) pozisyon almak, de\u011ferlendirilen i\u015flemler aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz alarm: Chicago PMI Nisan\u2019da 49,2\u2019ye inerek 53 beklentisini \u0131skalad\u0131; daralma sinyali. Bu tablo Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini \u00f6ne \u00e7ekebilir, volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir; opsiyon ve tahvil vadelerine dikkat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45872\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}