Christine Lagarde, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) nisan ay\u0131 politika toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Karara ve ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin bas\u0131n sorular\u0131n\u0131 yan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Lagarde, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma yar\u0131n bitse bile enerji \u00fczerindeki etkilerin devam edece\u011fini belirtti. Enerji piyasalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin \u201cikinci tur etkiler\u201d g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (\u201c\u0130kinci tur etkiler\u201d, enerji gibi bir ilk \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan \u00fccretlerin ve di\u011fer fiyatlar\u0131n zincirleme \u015fekilde artmas\u0131d\u0131r.) Ayr\u0131ca \u015firketlerle yap\u0131lan bir telefon anketinin, belirgin \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmedi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun temel sorun olmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar civar\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, Avro B\u00f6lgesi HICP verisinin (HICP: Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f endeks) %2,8\u2019de tak\u0131l\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu da %2 hedefe h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklentilerinin erken oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131 (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n da \u00fccret taleplerini beslemesi) \u015fimdilik g\u00fcndemde g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in \u201cm\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f \u00fccretler\u201d verisi %4,1\u2019e gerileyerek (m\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f \u00fccretler: sendikalar ve i\u015fverenler aras\u0131nda anla\u015fmayla belirlenen \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) belirgin ikinci tur etkilerin olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. Bu tablo, ECB\u2019ye faizi sabit tutmak i\u00e7in alan a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde \u201cnihai faiz\u201din (nihai faiz: bu faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6neminde ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen en y\u00fcksek politika faizi) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011fi bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri gibi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde \u201cvolatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201dna (volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle opsiyon primi toplama stratejileri) i\u015faret ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc uzun bir \u201cbekleme d\u00f6nemi\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Faizin belirli bir bantta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan, b\u00fcy\u00fck yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareket yerine yatay seyri hedefleyen stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te zirve yapan sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlamak gerekiyor; ama\u00e7 o d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fclen yayg\u0131n enflasyonu bast\u0131rmakt\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc sorun daha dar ve enerjiye odakl\u0131; bu da politikan\u0131n daha az h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, yaz aylar\u0131nda yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji fiyat etkilerinin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131rken, enerjiye do\u011frudan maruz kalma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ham petrolde veya Avrupa do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda s\u00fcren fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik risk priminin (risk primi: belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen ekstra maliyet) h\u0131zl\u0131 kaybolmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutarken Lagarde, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma bitse bile enerji etkilerinin s\u00fcrece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. Enflasyon enerji kaynakl\u0131, ikinci tur yok; piyasa uzun \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d ve volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45869"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45869\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}