\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), Nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizini (baz faiz: bankalar\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini ve piyasadaki genel faizleri belirleyen ana faiz) %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu. Karar, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen kriz ve bunun faiz beklentileri \u00fczerindeki etkisiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. <\/p>\n
ING, daha \u00f6nce bu y\u0131l faizin de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u015fimdi Haziran\u2019da bir kez faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Haziran art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u201cana senaryo\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de kesin de\u011fil. <\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey, piyasalar\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamada (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n gelecekteki faiz seviyelerini \u015fimdiden i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131tmas\u0131) fazla ileri gitti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi ko\u015fullarda olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi yerine faizin sabit tutulmas\u0131n\u0131, politikan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 (para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi ve talebi so\u011futacak \u015fekilde daha \u201csert\u201d hale gelmesi) olarak de\u011ferlendirdi. <\/p>\n
ING, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyonun bu y\u0131l %4\u2019\u00fcn biraz \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. ING, enflasyonun 2022\u2019deki gibi uzun s\u00fcreli ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019teki analize d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, BoE\u2019nin %3,75\u2019lik faiz seviyesinden temkinli bi\u00e7imde uzakla\u015fabilece\u011fine dair sinyal verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Orta Do\u011fu krizi nedeniyle, Haziran\u2019da tek bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu dizginlemek i\u00e7in yeterli olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. Bu durum, faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131nda (faize ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6r. vadeli i\u015flemler ve opsiyonlar) belirgin bir belirsizlik yaratt\u0131. <\/p>\n
Bildiklerimize g\u00f6re, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen Haziran 2025 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; ancak piyasan\u0131n fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilave art\u0131\u015flar hi\u00e7 gelmedi. Enflasyon 2025 ortas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,2 ile zirve yapt\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan yava\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Bu da Banka\u2019n\u0131n, y\u00fckseli\u015fin 2022\u2019deki kadar inat\u00e7\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frulad\u0131. Bu tablo, arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015foklar (enerji, emtia, tedarik sorunlar\u0131 gibi maliyeti art\u0131ran etkenler) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda piyasan\u0131n Banka\u2019y\u0131 gere\u011finden fazla \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz isteyen) g\u00f6rmeye meyilli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. <\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, 30 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla benzer bir durumla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z: faiz %4,0 d\u00fczeyinde ve piyasalar bu y\u0131l en az iki ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yeniden fiyatl\u0131yor. Enflasyon verisini yay\u0131mlayan ONS\u2019nin son verileri, man\u015fet T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; halk\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan ana enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %3,8 ile \u201ckat\u0131\u201d seyretti\u011fini (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini) g\u00f6sterirken Banka \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Ancak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ya\u015fananlar, piyasan\u0131n agresif fiyatlamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar, BoE\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d beklentileri bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fi bir senaryoya g\u00f6re pozisyon almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Buna, SONIA vadeli i\u015flemleri (Sterling Overnight Index Average; \u0130ngiliz sterlini gecelik faizine dayal\u0131 referans) \u00fczerindeki \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyat\u0131n\/faizin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket gerektiren) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satmak dahil olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, faizlerin piyasadaki mevcut fiyatlamadan daha az y\u00fckselmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Strateji, bu d\u00f6ng\u00fcde ula\u015f\u0131lacak \u201ctepe faizin\u201d (terminal rate: faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bitece\u011fi en y\u00fcksek seviye) vadeli fiyat e\u011frisinin (forward curve: gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlar\u0131n dizilimi) i\u015faret etti\u011finden daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131r. <\/p>\n
\u0130kinci bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatility: fiyatlar\u0131n ne kadar dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131) bakmakt\u0131r. Piyasa kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n tekrar edip merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131ndan hesaplanan beklenen dalgalanma) fazla y\u00fcksek olabilir. K\u0131sa sterlin vadeli i\u015flemlerinde \u201cstrangle\u201d satmak (farkl\u0131 iki kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu satarak prim geliri toplamak; fiyat\/faiz iki seviye aras\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa kazand\u0131r\u0131r) Banka\u2019n\u0131n yaz boyunca faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 ve piyasa pani\u011finin s\u00f6nmesi halinde de\u011ferlendirilebilecek bir y\u00f6ntemdir. <\/p>\n
\u00dccret verileri de izlenmeli; y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc %5,5 seviyesinde ve bu, Banka komitesi i\u00e7in temel bir endi\u015fe. \u00dccretlerdeki bu inat\u00e7\u0131l\u0131k, piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 iddialar\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Ancak 2025 \u00f6rne\u011fi hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Banka\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc (k\u0131sa vadeli verilerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 sinyalleri) ikinci plana at\u0131p, derin bir resesyona (ekonomide sert daralma) yol a\u00e7madan talebi so\u011futmaya odaklanaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BoE faizi sabit tutarken Orta Do\u011fu krizi beklentileri kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor: ING Haziran\u2019da tek art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2025\u2019te \u015fahin fiyatlama bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 2026\u2019da %4 faizle agresif art\u0131\u015flar abart\u0131l\u0131; opsiyonla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45864"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45864\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}