Christine Lagarde, ekonominin son dalgalanmalardan \u00f6nce ivme g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda temel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u00e7 talebin (\u00fclke i\u00e7indeki t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m) b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olmaya devam etti\u011fini, ancak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn olduk\u00e7a belirsiz oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Lagarde, gelen verilerin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ekonomik faaliyeti (\u00fcretim, t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m) bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin gelece\u011fe dair g\u00fcveninin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Tedarik zincirlerinin (hammadde ve ara mal\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcreticiden t\u00fcketiciye ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan a\u011f) bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi.<\/p>\n
Lagarde, y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gelirleri azaltabilece\u011fini ve \u015firketler ile haneleri yat\u0131r\u0131m konusunda isteksiz hale getirebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebinin (\u015firketlerin i\u015fe al\u0131m ihtiyac\u0131) daha da zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n hanelerin finansal durumunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu ve ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar tampon (olumsuz etkileri azaltan koruma) sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Maliye politikas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (devletin vergi ve harcama yoluyla ekonomiye m\u00fcdahalesi) ge\u00e7ici, hedefli ve duruma uygun olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerinin (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n e\u011filimi) son aylarda \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini de ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Lagarde, \u00fccret takip g\u00f6stergesinin (maa\u015f art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 izleyen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm) i\u015f\u00e7ilik maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini, anketlerin ise di\u011fer maliyetlerde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Uzun vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin (\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llara ili\u015fkin fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi) \u00e7o\u011funun %2 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu k\u0131sa vadede %2\u2019nin belirgin \u00fczerinde tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen Lagarde, ECB\u2019nin enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve etkisini yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fini ifade etti. B\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu da ekledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olduk\u00e7a belirsiz. Ekonomideki ivme kayb\u0131, y\u00fcksek enerji maliyetlerinin besledi\u011fi kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131 \u015fimdilik bekle-g\u00f6r konumunda: b\u00fcy\u00fcme riski nedeniyle faizi art\u0131rmakta zorlan\u0131yor, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle de faiz indirmeye yana\u015fm\u0131yor. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler belirginle\u015firken, \u015firketler net bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcven kaybediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin Almanya\u2019n\u0131n IFO \u0130\u015f Ortam\u0131 endeksi 89,5\u2019e gerileyerek \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti. Bu ortam, Avrupa hisselerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) destekliyor. DAX veya Euro Stoxx 50 gibi endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, hem korunma (hedge; riski azaltma) hem de k\u0131sa vadeli i\u015flem i\u00e7in uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli bir sorun. Euro B\u00f6lgesi nisan \u00f6nc\u00fc enflasyon verisi (flash; ilk tahmin) %3,1 ile %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyrederken, k\u0131sa vadede faiz indirimi ihtimali zay\u0131f. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131 (faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131) dikkate almas\u0131 ve en az\u0131ndan bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131na kadar politika gev\u015femesi beklemeyen faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (interest rate futures; gelecekteki faiz seviyesine dair kontrat) pozisyonlamas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc talebinde so\u011fuma da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %6,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6zlenen olumlu e\u011filim tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f veriler ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n hareketsizli\u011fi, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. VSTOXX endeksi (Euro Stoxx 50 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d; ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) 22 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. VSTOXX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, beklenen dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmeye dair temkinli ton, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan) olan \u00fclke para birimlerine k\u0131yasla euro \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Haneler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir finansal konumda olsa da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar daha bask\u0131n. Bu nedenle EUR\/USD paritesinde (euro\/dolar kuru) vadeli i\u015flemler veya opsiyonlarla (belirli \u015fartlarda al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) k\u0131sa pozisyon (short; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle sat\u0131\u015f) almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB frene bast\u0131: Lagarde nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tuttu. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma ve enerji \u015foku b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi bask\u0131larken enflasyon %2 \u00fcst\u00fcnde kal\u0131yor. Piyasalarda oynakl\u0131k, euroda zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve hedge aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45863"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45863\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}