Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB), euro b\u00f6lgesi **mevduat olanak faizini** (bankalar\u0131n gece boyunca ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paradan kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz) beklentilere paralel olarak **%2** seviyesinde belirledi.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klanan faiz seviyesi **%2** oldu.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025\u2019te mevduat olanak faizinin %2\u2019ye gelmesi piyasada s\u00fcrpriz yaratmad\u0131; ECB yaln\u0131zca beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, **parasal gev\u015femenin** (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirerek finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 rahatlatmas\u0131) h\u0131z\u0131. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verilerine g\u00f6re **man\u015fet enflasyon** (enerji ve g\u0131da dahil genel enflasyon) **%1,9**\u2019a gerileyerek ECB hedefinin alt\u0131na indi. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyreklerde ek faiz indirimleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n **t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler** (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerinden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlere y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin **EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri** (bankalar aras\u0131 faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilir. 2026 sonu veya 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda vadesi dolan vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde al\u0131m yapmak, ECB\u2019nin \u015fu an fiyatlanandan daha fazla faiz indirmesi halinde de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu stratejinin dayana\u011f\u0131, euro b\u00f6lgesinde ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte yaln\u0131zca **%0,4** olan **GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin** (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131) zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019yi daha fazla indirime y\u00f6neltebilece\u011fi beklentisidir.<\/p>\n
Tahvil piyasas\u0131nda **oynakl\u0131k** (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert de\u011fi\u015fmesi) da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ba\u015fl\u0131klardan. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, 2008 sonras\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz indirimlerinin ard\u0131ndan Alman devlet tahvillerinde uzun s\u00fcreli bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzer, ancak daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir e\u011filimin olu\u015ftu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, **Bund vadeli i\u015flemleri** (Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil vadeli kontrat\u0131, FGBL) \u00fczerinde **al\u0131m opsiyonu** (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon) almak, tahvil fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015ften yararlan\u0131rken riski ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
ECB ile ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki **politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131** (faiz indirimi h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) d\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda da net bir i\u015flem fikri olu\u015fturuyor. Fed\u2019in daha yava\u015f bir gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesi, **faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n** (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) euro aleyhine, ABD dolar\u0131 lehine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na neden olabilir. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda daha zay\u0131f bir euro beklentisiyle **FX opsiyonlar\u0131** (d\u00f6viz kuru \u00fczerine opsiyon) i\u00e7inde \u00f6zellikle **EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonu** (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ECB, mevduat faizini beklendi\u011fi gibi %2\u2019de tuttu. Enflasyon %1,9\u2019a inerken b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f: yeni indirimler g\u00fcndemde. Piyasa EURIBOR long, Bund call ve EUR\/USD put stratejilerini konu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}