Meksika\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ilk \u00e7eyrekte %0,1 oldu. Bu oran, beklenen %0,8\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7, tahminlere k\u0131yasla ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Veriler, 1\u00c7 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini piyasa beklentisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki %0,1\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme, beklenen %0,8\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalarak ciddi bir s\u00fcrpriz yaratt\u0131. Bu veri, y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ve \u201cistikrarl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131yla desteklenen Meksika pesosu (MXN) i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n faiz fark\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefledi\u011fi \u201ccarry trade\u201din (y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine ge\u00e7erek getiri kazanma stratejisi) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenebilir; bu da USD\/MXN kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi, politika faizi %9,75 seviyesinde bulunan Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (Banxico) zor bir noktaya ta\u015f\u0131yor. Piyasa, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu; ancak art\u0131k hazirandaki bir sonraki toplant\u0131da bile faiz indirimi ihtimali g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizlerden fayda sa\u011flayan \u201cfaiz swap\u0131\u201d (taraflar\u0131n faiz \u00f6demelerini sabit\/de\u011fi\u015fken olarak takas etti\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme) gibi ara\u00e7larla, daha g\u00fcvercin (faiz indirimi e\u011filimli) bir politika de\u011fi\u015fimine y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Meksika hisse senetleri g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc de belirgin \u015fekilde bozuldu. Ekonomik faaliyette yava\u015flama, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu i\u00e7 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa, Meksika\u2019n\u0131n sanayi ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 olan ABD\u2019de imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair son raporlar da ekleniyor. Olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131, iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (EWW) \u00fczerinde \u201cput opsiyonu\u201d (belirli bir fiyattan sat\u0131\u015f hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften korunma veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe oynama arac\u0131) almak basit bir y\u00f6ntem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir veri sapmas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. Peso opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi gelecekteki dalgalanma) veri sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %12\u2019den %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki belirsizlik d\u00f6neminden beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu ortam, \u201coynakl\u0131k uzun\u201d stratejilerini (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 artarsa kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen yakla\u015f\u0131m) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma stratejisi) gibi yap\u0131lar, daha geni\u015f fiyat hareketleri beklentisiyle de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz so\u011fuma: Meksika 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019si y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,1\u2019de kald\u0131, %0,8 beklentisini ezdi. Banxico\u2019da erken faiz indirimi fiyatlan\u0131yor; carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcrken peso zay\u0131flayabilir, oynakl\u0131k t\u0131rman\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45854"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45854\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}