Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, y\u0131l sonuna kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoE) yakla\u015f\u0131k 80 baz puan (bp, faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,80 puan) ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekliyor; bu, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) fiyatlamas\u0131na yak\u0131n. ECB\u2019nin politika faizi, BoE\u2019ye g\u00f6re 150 bp (1,50 puan) daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoE karar\u0131, faiz beklentilerinin yumu\u015famas\u0131na neden olabilir ve EUR\/GBP paritesini destekleyebilir. Faizlerin sabit tutulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 8\u2019e 1 oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 bekleniyor; Ba\u015f Ekonomist Huw Pill\u2019in art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy vermesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019den gelecekteki para politikas\u0131na dair (faiz patikas\u0131yla ilgili) yeni bir y\u00f6nlendirme beklenmiyor. Alternatif senaryolar aras\u0131nda Megan Greene ve Catherine Mann\u2019in de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy vermesi veya Ba\u015fkan Andrew Bailey\u2019nin piyasadaki agresif fiyatlamalara kar\u015f\u0131 daha temkinli bir mesaj vermesi yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyaseti de sterlini etkiliyor. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin Manchester belediye ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andy Burnham\u2019a atfedilen son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, devlet tahvillerinde (gilts, UK Hazine tahvilleri) ve GBP\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen hareketlerle ili\u015fkilendiriliyor. Bu yorumlarda, savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n mali kuraldan (b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan kural) muaf tutulabilece\u011fi ima edildi.<\/p>\n
EUR\/GBP\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin; h\u00fck\u00fcmet istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler ve \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalma ihtimaline ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. Yak\u0131n vadede 0,8700 \u00fczeri g\u00fcndeme getiriliyor.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019den beklenen s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n piyasada abart\u0131l\u0131 fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin 4,25% seviyesindeki politika faizinin ECB\u2019nin 3,00% faizinin zaten belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasa beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d bir yeniden fiyatlama (faiz beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesi) olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ECB\u2019nin daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede faizleri daha y\u00fcksek tutmaya yatk\u0131n) duru\u015funu koruyabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle z\u0131t. Son veriler de bunu destekliyor: Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta enflasyon ge\u00e7en ay 2,8%\u2019e gerilerken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu 3,2% ile daha inat\u00e7\u0131. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, EUR\/GBP kurunda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (de\u011ferini ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131ktan alan finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemleri yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, euro lehine\/sterlin aleyhine pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,8700 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike, opsiyonun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 verdi\u011fi seviye) EUR\/GBP al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren bir di\u011fer unsur, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta artan siyasi belirsizlik. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin istikrar\u0131 daha fazla sorgulan\u0131yor; ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131mlanan YouGov anketi, muhalefete kar\u015f\u0131 fark\u0131n sadece be\u015f puana indi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu t\u00fcr siyasi belirsizlik, genellikle para birimini zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k maliye politikas\u0131na ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu, 2022\u2019deki mini b\u00fct\u00e7e krizi s\u0131ras\u0131nda gilts ve sterlinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert sat\u0131\u015fla g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Mali kurallar d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutulabilecek harcamalara ili\u015fkin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tedirgin ediyor. Mali disiplinin gev\u015feyebilece\u011fine dair her sinyal, sterlin \u00fczerinde belirgin bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019nin daha g\u00fcvercin bir tutum alma ihtimali ile y\u00fckselen siyasi riskleri birlikte de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, EUR\/GBP\u2019de yak\u0131n vadede 0,8700 \u00fczerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut ortam parite i\u00e7in yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin i\u00e7in kritik g\u00fcn: Piyasa BoE\u2019den 80 bp ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor ancak abart\u0131 olabilir. G\u00fcvercin BoE, ECB \u015fahinli\u011fi ve artan siyasi risk EUR\/GBP\u2019yi 0,8700 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45843\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}