Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde ABD a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde %0,52 d\u00fc\u015ferek 48.750 seviyesine yakla\u015ft\u0131. S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,05 gerileyerek 7.160 civar\u0131na indi. Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri ise %0,17 y\u00fckselerek 27.370 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD vadeli endeksleri, \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131n (\u015firketlerin a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00e2r\/zarar ve gelir sonu\u00e7lar\u0131) farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve temkinli beklentiler nedeniyle kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrediyor. Meta Platforms, kullan\u0131c\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n (capex: veri merkezi, ekipman gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 piyasa \u00f6ncesi i\u015flemlerde %8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Microsoft, gelir ve k\u00e2r beklentilerini a\u015fmas\u0131na ve Azure ile bulut gelirinde (bulut: internet \u00fczerinden sunulan yaz\u0131l\u0131m ve bili\u015fim altyap\u0131s\u0131 hizmetleri) %40 art\u0131\u015f bildirmesine ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 geriledi. Alphabet ise ilk \u00e7eyrek gelir tahminlerini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %7 y\u00fckseldi; Google Cloud sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Amazon, k\u00e2r\u0131n beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 ve bulut gelirinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc artmas\u0131yla yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc seansta Dow %0,57 gerilerken S&P 500 %0,04 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Nasdaq 100 ise %0,04 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n enflasyon endi\u015feleri nedeniyle daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f sinyali vermesinin ard\u0131ndan hareketlendi. Morgan Stanley, daha \u00f6nce Eyl\u00fcl ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta indirim beklerken art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar Fed\u2019den faiz de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemiyor.<\/p>\n
FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan komitesi), faizi %3,5\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (faiz band\u0131: hedeflenen faiz oran\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131) tutmak i\u00e7in 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oyla karar ald\u0131. D\u00f6rt \u00fcyenin kar\u015f\u0131 oy kullanmas\u0131, Ekim 1992\u2019den bu yana ilk kez g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Kararda, k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fle k\u0131smen ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015fekilde enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasadan gelen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX: S&P 500 i\u00e7in \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d, piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) son d\u00f6nemde 15 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; Fed i\u00e7indeki belirgin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu seviye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli bir fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6neminde sert hareket etmesi beklenen hisselerde uzun straddle (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc harekete oynama stratejisi) kurmak bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131ndaki keskin ayr\u0131\u015fma, pairs trading (\u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem: g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta uzun, zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131kta k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak g\u00f6reli performansa oynama) i\u00e7in net bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u0131lda k\u00fcresel bulut altyap\u0131s\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu alanda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan Alphabet ve Amazon gibi \u015firketler tercih ediliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, opsiyonlarla kazananlarda uzun pozisyon al\u0131rken, kullan\u0131c\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentileri (forward guidance: \u015firket y\u00f6netiminin gelecek d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc) zay\u0131flayan \u015firketlerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon (bearish: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi) almay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu (hawkish: enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi), \u00f6zellikle faize duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde daha temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Bu, 2025 sonundaki \u201cbirden fazla faiz indirimi\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131ndan belirgin bir uzakla\u015fma. Bu nedenle portf\u00f6y\u00fcn bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda Dow Jones endeksine y\u00f6nelik koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta ama\u00e7l\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu) kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Dow, teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Nasdaq\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
FOMC oylamas\u0131ndaki 8-4 ayr\u0131\u015fma, faizlerin gelece\u011fine dair derin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden nadir bir durum. 1992\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeki bu i\u00e7 ayr\u0131\u015fma, ilerideki politika a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez olabilece\u011fi ve piyasalarda sert tepkiler yaratabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ayl\u0131k enflasyon verilerine (Fed i\u00e7 tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmede kritik) verilecek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa tepkilerinden yararlanmaya y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanma g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD vadelilerinde bilan\u00e7o ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131: Dow %0,52 d\u00fc\u015ferken Nasdaq y\u00fckseldi. Meta %8 \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; Alphabet ve Amazon ralli yapt\u0131. Fed\u2019in 8-4 b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi, \u015fahin riskle VIX\/opsiyon stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45841","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45841"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45841\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45841"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45841"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45841"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}