Danske Research ekibi, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) mevduat faizini %2,00\u2019da tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve yaz aylar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) se\u00e7ene\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Haziran ve Temmuz\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 puan) iki art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Odak noktas\u0131n\u0131n Christine Lagarde\u2019dan gelecek sinyaller olmas\u0131 bekleniyor; belirli bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k taahh\u00fct verilmeyecek. Bu toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131m \u201cbekle ve g\u00f6r\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon taraf\u0131nda, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin Nisan ay\u0131 \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d (ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan) HICP verisinin %2,9 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\/y) gelmesi bekleniyor; \u00f6nceki %2,6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,2\u2019ye gerilemesi beklenirken, HICP i\u00e7in %2,8\u2013%2,9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 da an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Almanya ve \u0130spanya verilerinin, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun ayl\u0131k e\u011filiminde de\u011fi\u015fim olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi ifade ediliyor. Hareketler, petrol \u015fokunun \u201cilk tur\u201d etkileri (enerji maliyetlerinin do\u011frudan fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi 1. \u00e7eyrek \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d GSYH\u2019nin (gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la) \u00e7eyreklik bazda (q\/q) %0,3 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Mart i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %6,2\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi notunu i\u00e7eriyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 30, 2026 itibar\u0131yla, ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki tahminlere g\u00f6re tablo belirgin bi\u00e7imde de\u011fi\u015fti. ECB ger\u00e7ekten de bu iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve mevduat faizini %2,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; faiz dokuz ayd\u0131r bu seviyede. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmini, man\u015fet enflasyonun %2,4\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterirken \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,7 ile y\u00fcksek seyrediyor ve 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha kal\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyondaki bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ve zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in yeni bir zorluk yarat\u0131yor. Son veriler, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yaln\u0131zca %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin %6,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flay\u0131nca piyasa art\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131yor; ilk faiz indiriminin ne zaman gelece\u011fine odaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (faiz, d\u00f6viz gibi varl\u0131klara dayal\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) stratejilerinin, faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn tepesine oynama yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan gev\u015feme (faiz indirimi) d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na pozisyon almaya kaymas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi belirtiliyor. Ge\u00e7 2026 veya 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda bir faiz indiriminden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek EURIBOR vadeli i\u015flemleri (Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faizine dayal\u0131 kontratlar) \u00fczerindeki opsiyonlarda (belirli bir fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor. Zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve y\u00fckselen i\u015fsizlik, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ECB\u2019nin %2 hedefinde olmasa da, bankan\u0131n politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetmeyi de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de: Danske, mevduat faizinin %2\u2019de kal\u0131p Lagarde\u2019\u0131n yaz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 aral\u0131k b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. 2026\u2019da faiz %2,50; b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131f, \u00e7ekirdek inat\u00e7\u0131, odak faiz indirimi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45835"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45835\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}