Japonya\u2019n\u0131n in\u015faat sipari\u015fleri martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %14,4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6nceki d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %42,7 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Son veri, in\u015faat sipari\u015flerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden daralmaya ge\u00e7i\u015fe i\u015faret ediyor. %42,7\u2019den %-14,4\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, 57,1 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k (iki oran aras\u0131ndaki fark) bir de\u011fi\u015fim anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, Japon ekonomisinin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Veriler belirgin bir yava\u015flama riskine i\u015faret ederken, Nikkei 225 endeksinde k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen i\u015flem) se\u00e7ene\u011fi g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Japon hisselerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklenirse put opsiyonu (\u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak veya vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi satmak (fiyat d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle yap\u0131lan sat\u0131\u015f) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOJ) \u00fczerinde ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 erteleme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark) dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam edebilir. Bu durum USD\/JPY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) fikrini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir; hedef, 162,50 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131.<\/p>\n
Olumsuz in\u015faat verisi tek ba\u015f\u0131na de\u011fil. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan mart ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc sanayi \u00fcretimi de ayl\u0131k bazda (aydan aya) s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde %2,1 darald\u0131. \u0130ki \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergenin ayn\u0131 anda bozulmas\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n tam fiyatlamam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi daha geni\u015f bir ekonomik soruna i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki aydaki %42,7\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131, 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda ba\u015flat\u0131lan kamu te\u015fvik projelerinden kaynaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Etkinin sadece s\u00f6nmekle kalmay\u0131p bu kadar sert \u015fekilde tersine d\u00f6nmesi, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn (devlet d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki \u015firketler ve hanehalk\u0131) temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo, son on y\u0131ldaki baz\u0131 te\u015fvik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli etki yaratmas\u0131na benziyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli bir ekonomik g\u00f6stergedeki bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanma, belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131r ve piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert hareket etmesi) besler. Nikkei 225 opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden, yakla\u015f\u0131k %16 civar\u0131ndan y\u00fckselmesi olas\u0131. Bu hareketlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 straddle (ayn\u0131 vade ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) veya strangle (ayn\u0131 vade, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma) stratejileri tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok veri: Japonya in\u015faat sipari\u015fleri martta y\u0131ll\u0131k %14,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek %42,7\u2019lik art\u0131\u015ftan sert d\u00f6nd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcme kayg\u0131s\u0131 Nikkei\u2019de short\/put, USD\/JPY\u2019de 162,50 hedefli call ve opsiyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015fi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45830\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}