USD\/CAD paritesi, \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile Kanada\u2019n\u0131n enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015findeki art\u0131\u015f aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu z\u0131t sinyaller 1,3680 civar\u0131nda dar bir bantta i\u015flemlere yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; ancak bu sakinli\u011fin s\u00fcrmesi zor. \u00d6nemli olan, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya (fiyat\u0131n band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na sert \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na) haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) en yak\u0131n tetikleyicisi petrol. WTI (ABD ham petrol\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldi. Hafif bir geri \u00e7ekilme olsa da \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 ve BAE\u2019nin OPEC\u2019ten (Petrol \u0130hra\u00e7 Eden \u00dclkeler \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc) s\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrolde sert y\u00fckseli\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck 4,2 milyon varili a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, petrolde olas\u0131 keskin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131ndan \u00e7ok, karar\u0131n 8\u2019e 4 gibi nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir oy ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ayr\u0131\u015fma 1992\u2019den beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. \u0130\u00e7erideki bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, enflasyonla (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla) nas\u0131l m\u00fccadele edilece\u011fine dair ciddi belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor; Fed de bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Fed i\u00e7indeki bu t\u00fcr ayr\u0131\u015fmalar genelde piyasada sert hareketlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr; bu da ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n seyrini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Petroldeki oynakl\u0131k k\u0131sa vadede Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in risk yaratsa da, uzun vadede yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. 16,4 milyar dolarl\u0131k Shell-ARC anla\u015fmas\u0131 tekil bir olay de\u011fil; ge\u00e7en \u00e7eyrekte Kanada enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n (\u015firketlerin \u00fclkeye fabrika, saha, varl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131 gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) son alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha geni\u015f bir e\u011filimin par\u00e7as\u0131. Bu sermaye giri\u015fi, para birimi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturarak, petrol ge\u00e7ici olarak zay\u0131flasa bile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ama z\u0131t etkiler nedeniyle en mant\u0131kl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m, opsiyonlarla oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak. Opsiyon (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) kullan\u0131m\u0131, y\u00f6n tahmininden \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar. USD\/CAD\u2019de long straddle veya strangle (biri ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, di\u011feri farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte alma stratejileri) uygulan\u0131rsa, parite \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa i\u015flemci kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD 1,3680\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: \u015eahin Fed ile Kanada enerjiye artan yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fleri \u00e7eki\u015fiyor. Petrol 104$ ve jeopolitik riskler k\u0131r\u0131lma tetikleyicisi. Y\u00f6n de\u011fil, opsiyonla oynakl\u0131k hedefte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45827","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45827\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}