AUD\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7130\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Avustralya Dolar\u0131, \u00fclkede a\u00e7\u0131klanan daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon verisinin ard\u0131ndan de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (CPI: t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) Mart ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avustralya \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (ABS) verilerine g\u00f6re \u00f6nceki seviye %3,7 idi. Veri, %4,7 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
Ayl\u0131k CPI, Mart\u2019ta %1,1 oldu; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde %0\u2019d\u0131. Piyasalar, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7in PMI verisini (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: imalat ve hizmetlerde ekonomik aktiviteyi g\u00f6steren anket verisi) bekliyor.<\/p>\n
FOMC (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oyla faizi %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Bu, Ekim 1992\u2019den bu yana ilk kez d\u00f6rt \u00fcyenin kar\u015f\u0131 oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Komite, \u201cenflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini ve bunun k\u0131smen k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki son art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revi bitse bile belirsiz bir s\u00fcre Fed y\u00f6neticisi olarak kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n halef olarak i\u015faret etti\u011fi Kevin Warsh\u2019un, Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine ba\u015fkan olma yolunda oldu\u011fu bildirildi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Avustralya enflasyon verileri RBA \u00fczerinde faiz art\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu. Bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015f (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 e\u011filimi) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 i\u00e7indeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131, AUD\/USD paritesini 0,7130 seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortam, Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekliyordu.<\/p>\n
Sonras\u0131nda tablo de\u011fi\u015fti. Fed daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya gitti ve inat\u00e7\u0131 ABD enflasyonuyla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in politika faizini %5,00-%5,25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti. ABD enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma d\u00f6nemi) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek verdi. Sonu\u00e7 olarak AUD\/USD geriledi ve \u015fu anda 0,6550 civar\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da RBA\u2019n\u0131n faizi %4,50\u2019ye kadar art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n etkileri g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2026\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrek enflasyon verileri %3,8\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen %4,6\u2019ya k\u0131yasla bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, RBA\u2019n\u0131n ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Piyasa \u015fu anda Avustralya merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olan s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Avustralya dolar\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ya da y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon alma fikrini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. AUD\/USD put opsiyonu almak (parite d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131ndan faydalanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. \u201cZ\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) merkez bankas\u0131 belirsizli\u011fiyle y\u00fckselirken bu strateji hem mevcut pozisyonu korumak (hedge: riskten korunma) hem de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyattan uzak; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi zor) AUD\/USD call spread satmakt\u0131r (y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131ysa prim geliri elde etmeyi hedefleyen opsiyon stratejisi). Bu strateji, parite yatay seyrederse veya kademeli d\u00fc\u015ferse avantaj sa\u011flar. ABD Dolar\u0131 lehine olan faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclke faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark), paritede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yak\u0131n ya da n\u00f6tr stratejileri desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz enflasyonla AUD\/USD 0,7130\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131: Avustralya CPI %4,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, RBA bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. Ancak Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; parite 0,6550\u2019de, put\/call spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45822","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45822"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45822\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45822"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45822"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45822"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}