GBP\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,355 b\u00f6lgesinden geriledi; 18:00 GMT sonras\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3460\u2019\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 1,3480 civar\u0131nda kapand\u0131. Hareketlerde, 08:00 GMT\u2019yi biraz ge\u00e7e Trump\u2019\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 sonras\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcn 110 dolar\/varil \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizi %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 (1992\u2019den bu yana en \u00e7ok g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan oylama) ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin (faizinin) %4,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 11:00 GMT\u2019de \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz karar\u0131, toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, raporlar ve oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; 11:30 GMT\u2019de BoE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andrew Bailey konu\u015facak. 12:30 GMT\u2019de ABD, Mart PCE, 1\u00c7 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH, 1\u00c7 \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi ve i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlayacak; 13:45 GMT\u2019de Chicago PMI a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
BoE i\u00e7in beklenti, faizin %3,75\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 ve oylar\u0131n 8-1 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Piyasalar ise y\u0131l sonuna kadar yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 baz puan (faizde %0,60) art\u0131\u015f fiyatl\u0131yor. Reuters anketine g\u00f6re 22 ekonomistin 17\u2019si \u0130ngiltere\u2019de stagflasyon (y\u00fcksek enflasyon + zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme) riskini y\u00fcksek veya \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD tahminleri: PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 (\u00f6nceki %2,8), \u00e7ekirdek PCE y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2 (\u00f6nceki %3,0), 1\u00c7 GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,5) ve \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi %0,8. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; imalatta faaliyeti \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) 53 ve \u00d6denen Fiyatlar (girdi maliyet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren alt endeks) 80 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; ayr\u0131ca 11:15 GMT\u2019de Huw Pill konu\u015facak.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD 1,3481 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 15 dakikal\u0131k grafikte diren\u00e7 1,3526. G\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019lar (\u00fcssel hareketli ortalama; son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 1,3441\u2019de (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck) ve 1,3384\u2019te (200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck). Parite 1,33-1,36 band\u0131nda seyretti; nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda 1,316, ay ortas\u0131nda 1,357 \u00fczeri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
30 Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla temel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma benzer: her iki merkez bankas\u0131 da kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ile yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tablo \u00f6zellikle zor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00dcFE (CPI; t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun ana \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) verisi, man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,1 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu ve %2 hedefin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Buna ek olarak 1\u00c7 2026 GSYH verisi ekonominin yaln\u0131zca %0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu; bu da stagflasyon riskinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda Fed de zor bir denge i\u00e7inde; bu durum dolar i\u00e7in taban destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek PCE (Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi), martta %2,9 geldi; bu seviye, faiz indirimi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili getirisini %4,6\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131yarak sermayeyi \u00e7ekiyor ve dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, GBP\/USD\u2019de volatilitenin (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n) y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve opsiyon i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni volatilite (opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %9,2 ile y\u00fcksek. Straddle veya strangle (opsiyon stratejileri; y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan, fiyat\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hareketinden kazanmay\u0131 hedefler: straddle ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu, strangle farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m+sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, belirli bir trend yerine iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m sunabilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, gelecek Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP; tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) verisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, Fed\u2019in \u201cfaizler uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilir\u201d s\u00f6ylemini destekleyebilir ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,2450 civar\u0131ndaki diplerini yeniden test etmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. 2023-2025 d\u00f6neminde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri, s\u0131k s\u0131k dolar\u0131n belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerin \u00f6ncesinde gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Parite \u015fu anda dar bir bantta. 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama 1,2550\u2019de, destek 1,2480 civar\u0131nda. Piyasa k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; dolar\u0131n getiri avantaj\u0131 (tahvil faizlerinin daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131) nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n bask\u0131s\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 1,2420\u2019nin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, yatay seyrin bitti\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sinyal olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin\/dolar 1,355\u2019ten 1,3480\u2019e \u00e7ekildi; petrol ve %4,4+ ABD tahvil faizi dolar\u0131 destekledi. G\u00f6zler BoE\u2019de (beklenti %3,75 sabit). PCE\/GSYH verileri volatiliteyi art\u0131rabilir; 1,2420 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45813\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}