ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Bloomberg\u2019in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc haberine g\u00f6re, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusunda Tahran\u2019la bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lana kadar ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7maya d\u00f6n\u00fck son \u00f6nerisini reddetti\u011fini, bunun n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ileri bir tarihe erteleyece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gemileri abluka alt\u0131nda tutmaya devam etmesi halinde \u201ce\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir askeri eylem\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silaha sahip olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran n\u00fckleer hedeflerinin bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l oldu\u011funu savundu.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI), yaz\u0131n\u0131n yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %7,60 art\u0131\u015fla 104,90 dolara y\u00fckseldi. (WTI, ABD\u2019de fiyat\u0131 referans al\u0131nan ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fcr.)<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l da benzer tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki gerilim WTI fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki %7\u2019yi a\u015fan s\u0131\u00e7rama, piyasalar\u0131n Basra K\u00f6rfezi kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik (\u00fclkeler aras\u0131 gerilim) riski ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019teki o a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan izlenecek yakla\u015f\u0131m, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almakt\u0131. WTI veya Brent vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m anla\u015fmas\u0131) \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) almak, gerilimin artmas\u0131 ve arz\u0131n aksamas\u0131 ihtimalinden yararlanman\u0131n en do\u011frudan yoluydu. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7ti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, olas\u0131 bir abluka k\u00fcresel arz i\u00e7in ciddi bir tehdit anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/p>\n
Bunun yan\u0131nda, petrol fiyat \u015fokunun ekonominin geneline verebilece\u011fi zarara kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski dengelemek i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nde i\u015flem) gerekiyordu. Bu da yak\u0131t maliyetine en hassas alanlarda, \u00f6rne\u011fin havayolu ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyordu. B\u00f6yle bir koruma, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclen talep daralmas\u0131n\u0131n (y\u00fcksek fiyat nedeniyle t\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131) portf\u00f6ye zarar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, piyasada oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n sert dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131ran klasik tetikleyicilerdir. Bu nedenle VIX\u2019te y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisine g\u00f6re pozisyon almak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. VIX, S&P 500\u2019e dayal\u0131 \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir; piyasadaki beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er. 2025\u2019te VIX\u2019in birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 20\u2019li seviyelerden 35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. VIX al\u0131m opsiyonu veya VIX vadeli i\u015flemi almak, artan belirsizli\u011fi (piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n konusunda karars\u0131z kalmas\u0131) do\u011frudan fiyatlayan bir y\u00f6ntemdi.<\/p>\n
Bu tepki s\u00fcrpriz de\u011fildi; 2022\u2019deki Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131nda Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 140 dolara yakla\u015fmas\u0131 hat\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tablo netle\u015fiyor. Tarihsel \u00f6rnekler, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticilerini ilgilendiren askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla piyasa temkinli. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verilerine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %3 alt\u0131nda. Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k (piyasada arz\u0131n g\u00f6rece s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131), yeni bir arz tehdidinin benzer \u015fekilde sert bir fiyat tepkisi yaratabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 (opsiyonlar\u0131n al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) \u015fu anda enerji hisseleri i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek bir oynakl\u0131k primi (belirsizlik artt\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon fiyat\u0131na eklenen \u201crisk pay\u0131\u201d) fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi yeniden alevlendi: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma sa\u011flanana dek deniz ablukas\u0131 s\u00fcrecek dedi; Tahran \u201cemsalsiz askeri eylem\u201d uyard\u0131. WTI %7,6 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 104,90 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}