EUR\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,1680 civar\u0131na geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) karar\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Fed, Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda federal fonlama faizini (bankalar\u0131n birbirine gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi) %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Karar 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131. D\u00f6rt yetkilinin muhalefeti, Ekim 1992\u2019den bu yana ilk kez bu kadar y\u00fcksek say\u0131da kar\u015f\u0131 oy g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7 muhalif \u00fcye, metinde ileride faiz indirimlerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi izlenimi veren ifadeye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Jerome Powell, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6revi bitti\u011finde de belirsiz bir s\u00fcre Fed y\u00f6netim kurulunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump taraf\u0131ndan aday g\u00f6sterilen Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n, Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine Fed ba\u015fkan\u0131 olmaya yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor. Piyasalar, olas\u0131 liderlik de\u011fi\u015fiminin Fed\u2019in mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyebilece\u011fini izliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ortamda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizlerini sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enflasyon, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji fiyat\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle y\u00fckselirken, Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs, ECB\u2019den her biri 25 baz puanl\u0131k (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) iki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; b\u00f6ylece mevduat faizinin (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan faiz) yeniden %2,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD\u2019nin bir Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 1,1680 yak\u0131n\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Dolar, Fed\u2019in politika faizini %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015fti. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fine oynayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025 karar\u0131, d\u00f6rt yetkilinin kar\u015f\u0131 oy kullanmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00f6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekiciydi; bu, 1992\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek say\u0131yd\u0131. Bu belirgin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) y\u00f6n\u00fcne dair ciddi belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret etti. Sonras\u0131nda bu \u00e7eki\u015fmenin, 2025\u2019in geri kalan\u0131nda politika ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve faiz piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ECB\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyordu; ancak piyasalar gelecekteki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 fiyatlamaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Haziran\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Nitekim ECB, 2025 Haziran\u2019\u0131nda man\u015fet HICP enflasyonu (AB uyumlu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu g\u00f6stergesi) \u00e7eyrekte %4,1 ile zirve yaparken 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f bir Fed ile daha kararl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir ECB aras\u0131ndaki bu farkl\u0131la\u015fma, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (fiyat\u0131 d\u00f6viz, faiz gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyaldi. Bu tablo, dalgalanma al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat hareketlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine oynama) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kurda hareketler genelde b\u00fcy\u00fcr. 3 ay vadeli EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen dalgalanma) Nisan 2025 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izleyen haftalarda %8\u2019den %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; straddle veya strangle (yukar\u0131\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareketlere oynayan opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131) alanlar kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6nsel olarak daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc strateji, dolar\u0131n ilk g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini a\u015farak orta vadede euronun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na pozisyon almakt\u0131. ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rma patikas\u0131n\u0131n daha net olmas\u0131, ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki para birimi aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131) daralabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederek euroyu destekledi. EUR\/USD\u2019de \u201cbull call spread\u201d gibi (y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyen, iki al\u0131m opsiyonuyla kurulan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) opsiyon stratejileri, parite 2025\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde yeniden 1,2000\u2019e y\u00f6nelirken k\u00e2rl\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019de Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n gelebilece\u011fine dair liderlik belirsizli\u011fi de dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatan bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, ECB taraf\u0131ndaki daha dengeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fturdu. Bu ortam, k\u0131sa vadenin \u00f6tesinde daha zay\u0131f dolara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu y\u00f6nde pozisyon almak isteyenlerin t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/USD 1,1680\u2019e \u00e7ekildi: Fed faizi sabit tuttu, 1992\u2019den beri en y\u00fcksek 4 kar\u015f\u0131 oy dikkat \u00e7ekti. G\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de; sabit beklenirken Haziran-Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yor, oynakl\u0131k y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45811","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45811","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45811"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45811\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45811"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45811"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45811"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}