ABD hisseleri, Fed\u2019in beklendi\u011fi gibi faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na ve b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketlerinin bilan\u00e7o sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen geriledi. DJIA 48.900\u2019e yak\u0131n kapanarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci kayb\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131. S&P 500 yatay seyrederken Nasdaq hafif y\u00fckseldi. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi (devletin 10 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7lanma faizi, piyasa faizleri i\u00e7in ana g\u00f6sterge) %4,4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk man\u015fetleri \u0130ran\u2019a odakland\u0131. Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n 08:00 GMT sonras\u0131 Truth Social\u2019da yapay zek\u00e2 ile \u00fcretilmi\u015f bir g\u00f6rsel payla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tansiyon y\u00fckseldi. Brent petrol 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken WTI yeniden 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik uzun s\u00fcreli abluka planland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haber, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) ilgiyi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Saat 18:00 GMT\u2019de FOMC (Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 belirleyen kurul) politika faizini (federal fonlama faizi hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131; bankalar aras\u0131 gecelik faiz i\u00e7in hedef) %3,5-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Piyasalar zaten %100 olas\u0131l\u0131kla de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordu. Karar d\u00f6rt kar\u015f\u0131 oyla \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fcye, metindeki \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d ifadesinin (ileride faiz indirimi ihtimalini ima eden dil) \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 isterken Stephen Miran faiz indirimi savundu. Powell, 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta ba\u015fkanl\u0131k g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi bitse de Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
20:00 GMT sonras\u0131 bilan\u00e7o taraf\u0131nda Microsoft, Azure\u2019un y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %40 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Alphabet Google Cloud b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini %63 olarak duyurdu. AWS %28 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc ve bunun son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Qualcomm hissesi %13\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi; Otomotiv gelirleri y\u0131ll\u0131k %38 artarak rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Microsoft\u2019ta bulut faaliyetlerinin br\u00fct k\u00e2r marj\u0131 (cirodan do\u011frudan maliyetler \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalan k\u00e2r oran\u0131) %66\u2019ya gerilerken Amazon, kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde (normal seans sonras\u0131ndaki al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) %3\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Meta, 2026 sermaye harcamas\u0131 (capex; veri merkezi, sunucu, tesis gibi uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar) tahminini 125-145 milyar dolara y\u00fckseltti (\u00f6nceki 115-135 milyar dolar). Alphabet 175-185 milyar dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi; Amazon ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 milyar dolar hedefledi. D\u00f6rt \u015firketin 2026 capex toplam\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 650 milyar dolar seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcndemdeki veriler: Per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de 1\u00c7 \u00f6nc\u00fc GSYH (ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ilk tahmini) ve Mart PCE (Fed\u2019in yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 enflasyonu) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Beklenti GSYH\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %2,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,5) olmas\u0131. Man\u015fet PCE\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin (enerji ve g\u0131day\u0131 hari\u00e7 tutan, daha \u201ckal\u0131c\u0131\u201d enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,2 gelmesi bekleniyor. Cuma 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc geni\u015fleme) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; \u201cPrices Paid\u201d (girdi maliyetleri\/\u00f6denen fiyatlar alt endeksi) i\u00e7in beklenti 80.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnk\u00fc fiyat hareketi ve man\u015fet ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayanarak daha temkinli bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7iyoruz. Dow\u2019un \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ve 48.900 seviyesini koruyamamas\u0131 al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu a\u015famada \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte al\u0131m\u201d yerine olas\u0131 ek geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma \u00f6n planda olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk, enflasyon endi\u015felerini do\u011frudan besleyen ana unsur haline geldi. Brent\u2019in 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 \u00f6nceki gerilimlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor; bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler genellikle enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Oynakl\u0131kta uzun pozisyon (volatilite art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen strateji) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; VIX (S&P 500 beklenen oynakl\u0131k endeksi; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) 16,5 civar\u0131ndayken opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019de karar\u0131n b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir sinyal veriyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler) 2026\u2019da faiz indirimi ihtimalinin neredeyse tamamen silindi\u011fini, hatta Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc PCE veya Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM Prices Paid verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, tahvil faizlerinin daha da y\u00fckselmesi ve hisseler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 artmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji taraf\u0131nda hik\u00e2ye art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden \u00e7ok, bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin maliyeti. Sadece d\u00f6rt \u015firketin 2026 i\u00e7in toplam yakla\u015f\u0131k 650 milyar dolarl\u0131k capex \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, ileride k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan soru i\u015faretleri yarat\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck, sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir y\u00fck haline geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle Nasdaq ve S&P 500\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyonlarla korunma (hedge; portf\u00f6y kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon) olu\u015fturuyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski, XLE gibi enerji ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon; bir endeks\/sepete yat\u0131r\u0131m imk\u00e2n\u0131) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir sigorta arac\u0131 haline getiriyor. Piyasa k\u0131r\u0131lgan; bu haftaki veriler tedirgin seyrin daha belirgin bir d\u00fczeltmeye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar Fed sabit faizine ra\u011fmen geriledi: Dow be\u015finci kay\u0131pla 48.900\u2019de, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,4+. \u0130ran\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131; mega capex bask\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131, hedge ve enerji sigortas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45805\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}