Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 ve Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n, hakk\u0131ndaki cezai soru\u015fturma d\u00fc\u015fene kadar Y\u00f6netim Kurulu\u2019nda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n %1\u2019den fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD (ons alt\u0131n\/dolar) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.610 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.546 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alan komite) faizi %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u0131rakt\u0131; karar 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 4 oyla ge\u00e7ti. Bu, 1992\u2019den bu yana en ayr\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 (en fazla kar\u015f\u0131 oy \u00e7\u0131kan) oylama oldu. Stephen Miran indirimi desteklerken, Beth Hammak, Neel Kashkari ve Lorie Logan \u201cgev\u015feme e\u011filimi\u201d eklenmesine (ileride faiz indirimi sinyali verilmesine) kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) %0,37 art\u0131\u015fla 98,96\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi 8 baz puan artarak %4,43\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 8 baz puan = %0,08). Para piyasalar\u0131, Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re Nisan 2027 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %29 olarak fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD \u00e7ekirdek dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal sipari\u015fleri (u\u00e7ak\/savunma gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7, uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn sipari\u015fleri) \u015eubat\u2019taki %1,6 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %3,3 y\u00fckseldi; %0,6 beklentisinin \u00fczerinde geldi. Toplam sipari\u015fler y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften %0,8 art\u0131\u015fa d\u00f6nd\u00fc ve %0,5 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri olan 4.510 dolar civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. 4.500 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde destek seviyeleri 4.482, 4.351 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ortalama fiyat\u0131; trendi izlemek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131l\u0131r) olan 4.269. Diren\u00e7ler ise 4.600, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.753 ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 4.848.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n kritik desteklerin alt\u0131na inmesiyle k\u0131sa vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar daha avantajl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri veya ilgili ETF\u2019lerde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; riski \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rlayan ara\u00e7) almak, 4.482 ve 4.351 destek b\u00f6lgelerini hedeflemek i\u00e7in kontroll\u00fc riskli bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Ancak Powell etraf\u0131ndaki siyasi gerilimin artmas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131m\u0131\u201d (riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fla alt\u0131n gibi varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) tetikleyebilece\u011fi i\u00e7in temkinli olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in net bir \u201cfaiz indirimi yolu\u201d \u00e7izmekte isteksiz duru\u015fu, gelen verilerle de destekleniyor. Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan Mart \u00e7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksi (Fed\u2019in takip etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi; g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7) %3,1 geldi; hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen iyile\u015fmeyi tersine \u00e7evirdi. Buna ek olarak, ge\u00e7en hafta i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n (i\u015fini kaybedenlerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular) 195 bine gerileyerek alt\u0131 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine inmesi, Fed\u2019in aceleyle faiz indirmesi gere\u011fini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da DXY\u2019de al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Benzer \u015fekilde, faizlerdeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, uzun vadeli tahvil ETF\u2019lerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor (uzun vadeli: faize daha duyarl\u0131, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek). Piyasa art\u0131k gelecek y\u0131la kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, birka\u00e7 ay \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar aras\u0131ndaki sert ayr\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle VIX endeksinde (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d olarak bilinir) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak, artan piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 do\u011frudan korunma sa\u011flar. Fed i\u00e7inde bu d\u00fczeyde bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 1990\u2019lar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi. Washington\u2019dan gelecek beklenmedik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya s\u00fcrpriz ekonomik veriler, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck etkiler yaratabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok Fed oylamas\u0131 alt\u0131n\u0131 vurdu: Faiz sabit, Powell y\u00f6netimde kalaca\u011f\u0131m dedi; DXY ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle XAU\/USD %1\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ferek 4.546\u2019ya indi, kritik destekler izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45803"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45803\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}