USD\/JPY, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesinin ard\u0131ndan iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n 160,20 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Toplant\u0131, Jerome Powell ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki son toplant\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirildi. Powell\u2019\u0131n bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yay\u0131mlanan metinde enflasyonun \u201cy\u00fcksek\u201d seyretti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in aday g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi Kevin Warsh, ABD Senatosu Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nde 13-11 oyla onay ald\u0131. Warsh\u2019\u0131n 15 May\u0131s\u2019ta Powell\u2019\u0131n yerine ge\u00e7ebilmesi i\u00e7in Senato Genel Kurulu\u2019nda da onay almas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Beyaz Saray yetkilileri, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmesine kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyi petrol \u015firketleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Bu haber, hem ABD dolar\u0131nda hem de petrolde y\u00fckseli\u015fle ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi.<\/p>\n
Japonya bug\u00fcn perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Tokyo T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: enflasyonu g\u00f6steren fiyat art\u0131\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 izlenecek. Parite, Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u00f6zl\u00fc m\u00fcdahalede (yetkililerin kur hakk\u0131nda y\u00f6nlendirici a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131) bulundu\u011fu seviyelere yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte USD\/JPY 160,26 seviyesinde, 20 ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: fiyat\u0131n belirli d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131) 159,53 ve 159,22 d\u00fczeylerinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 160,17 civar\u0131ndaki \u00f6nceki seviyeler destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. RSI (14) (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi; 70\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131ma i\u015faret edebilir) 67\u2019ye yak\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 (yukar\u0131 hareketi zorla\u015ft\u0131ran seviye) 160,32 ve 160,36\u2019da, destek (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) 160,17 ve 159,82\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ek destek 159,53 ve 159,22\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin 2025\u2019te Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yatk\u0131n) duru\u015fla faizi sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 160 seviyesine temas etti\u011fini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. O d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve jeopolitik gerilimler belirleyiciydi; bug\u00fcn de tablo benzer. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, piyasalar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda nas\u0131l davranabilece\u011fine dair bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor.<\/p>\n
En \u00f6nemli risk, o d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi (kuru etkilemek i\u00e7in piyasada d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131). Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024\u2019te yetkililer, kur 160 seviyesinin \u00fczerine zay\u0131flay\u0131nca para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 9,8 trilyon yen harcam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in koruyucu pozisyon) de\u011ferlendirebilir. Burada \u201copsiyon\u201d (belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: yen al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) tercih edilebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tedirginlik opsiyon piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131k\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) %11\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131nda %8\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Bu, korunma maliyetinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelir; erken hareket etmek avantaj sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Yen \u00fczerindeki temel bask\u0131, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cfaiz fark\u0131ndan\u201d (interest rate differential: iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) kaynaklanmaya devam ediyor. Fed fonlama faizi %4,75\u2019te kal\u0131rken BoJ politika faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,10. Bu durum dolar\u0131 tercih etmeyi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde te\u015fvik ediyor. Bu nedenle m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu gerilim \u201crisk reversal\u201d g\u00f6stergesinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Risk reversal, ayn\u0131 vadedeki al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat fark\u0131yla piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. USD\/JPY d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlar\u0131n maliyeti h\u0131zla artt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) \u00f6d\u00fcyor; bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz bir harekete haz\u0131rl\u0131k anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu savunmac\u0131 pozisyonlanma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda i\u015flemlerin nas\u0131l kurgulanaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nemli bir sinyal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY, Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131yla 160,20\u2019de iki y\u0131l zirvesine yak\u0131n. Warsh onay\u0131 s\u00fcreci izleniyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Teknikte 160,32 diren\u00e7. M\u00fcdahale\/opsiyon maliyeti art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45792","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45792\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}