EUR\/CAD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Kanada Dolar\u0131, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, y\u00fckselen Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da para birimini destekledi. Parite 1,5982 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye bir ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerine yak\u0131n ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,28 eksideydi.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 gecelik faizi (bankalar\u0131n birbirine uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli faiz) beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde %2,25\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 benimsedi. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri ve ticaret politikas\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fe ekonominin nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini izledi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Banka net bir y\u00f6nlendirme yapmad\u0131; kararlar\u0131n veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ba\u015fkan Tiff Macklem, politika faizinin mevcut seviyelere yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (\u00f6zellikle petrol ve yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131yla y\u00fckselen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) yay\u0131l\u0131rsa faizlerin art arda y\u00fckseltilebilece\u011fini; ABD\u2019nin ciddi ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 getirmesi halinde ise faiz indiriminin g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Banka\u2019n\u0131n tahminleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ayn\u0131 kald\u0131. GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretti\u011fi de\u011fer) 2026\u2019da %1,2; 2027\u2019de %1,6; 2028\u2019de %1,7 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Enflasyon tahmini 2026\u2019da %2,3; 2027\u2019de %2,1; 2028\u2019de %2,0 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD tarifelerinin de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi ve Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolara do\u011fru 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar gev\u015fedi\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB\u2019ye (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) kay\u0131yor; faizlerin yedinci toplant\u0131da da %2,0\u2019de kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
BoC\u2019nin endi\u015feleri, ay ba\u015f\u0131nda gelen verilerle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: Mart ay\u0131 Kanada T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyonun ana g\u00f6stergesi) beklenmedik \u015fekilde %2,9\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131 ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. D\u00fcn WTI ham petrol (ABD referans petrol\u00fc) fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 2025 sonundan bu yana ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapanmas\u0131, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n azalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tablo Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklerken, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli duru\u015funu da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve bu durum yar\u0131n ECB\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6nc\u00fc tahminler Nisan enflasyonunun %2,8 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, ilk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yaln\u0131zca %0,1 oldu; bu da stagflasyon riskine (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme + y\u00fcksek enflasyon) i\u015faret ediyor. 2025\u2019te resesyon (ekonomik daralma) kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019yi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 durdurmaya itti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; benzer bir ikilem \u015fimdi de g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm EUR\/CAD put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Put opsiyonu (belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) 1,5900 civar\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla (strike, opsiyonun hak fiyat\u0131) paritede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f devam ederse kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Macklem\u2019in ABD\u2019den gelebilecek ciddi ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedik bir faiz indirimine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle de daha temkinli bir se\u00e7enek; b\u00f6yle bir senaryo sert bir ters hareket yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Her iki merkez bankas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 belirsizlik, paritede k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatiliteyi de (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. Bu durum takvim spreadi gibi stratejileri (yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyon sat\u0131p daha uzun vadeli opsiyon alma) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor: Yak\u0131n vadeli, primi (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) y\u00fcksek bir opsiyonu satarak daha uzun vadeli pozisyonun maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclebilir. B\u00f6ylece mevcut oynakl\u0131ktan yararlan\u0131l\u0131rken, daha uzun vadeli e\u011filime g\u00f6re konum al\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasada dikkat: EUR\/CAD BoC\u2019nin faizi %2,25\u2019te tutup veriye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve 95 dolar \u00fczeri petrol\u00fcn CAD\u2019i desteklemesiyle 1,5982\u2019ye, ayl\u0131k dip yak\u0131n\u0131na indi; g\u00f6zler ECB\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45788"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45788\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}