DJIA vadeli i\u015flemleri (Dow Jones Sanayi Endeksi\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 kontratlar) \u00c7ar\u015famba seans\u0131nda geriledi ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 49,3 binin \u00fczerinde kalamay\u0131nca 48,8 bin civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S&P 500 ve Nasdaq Composite (geni\u015f ABD hisse endeksleri) Fed (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) karar\u0131 ve seans sonras\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanacak b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji \u015firketi bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yataya yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n
Mart Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri (uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc \u00fcr\u00fcn sipari\u015fleri) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,8 artt\u0131; beklenti %0,5\u2019ti. Bir \u00f6nceki ay %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmu\u015ftu. Savunma d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sermaye mallar\u0131 sipari\u015fleri (yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren kalem), u\u00e7ak hari\u00e7, ayl\u0131k bazda %3,3 y\u00fckseldi; beklenti %0,6\u2019yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD WTI ham petrol\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 art\u0131\u015fla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, Brent ise 117 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, Beyaz Saray\u2019\u0131n yetkililere \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik uzun s\u00fcreli bir ABD ablukas\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fine dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Nisan FOMC (Fed\u2019in faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan komitesi) karar\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de, bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 18:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Piyasalar faizin %3,75\u2019te kalmas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Powell\u2019\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi May\u0131s\u2019ta bitiyor.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh Senato Bankac\u0131l\u0131k Komitesi\u2019nden ge\u00e7ti, adayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi Senato Genel Kurulu\u2019na gidiyor. Senato 4 May\u0131s sonras\u0131na kadar tatilde.<\/p>\n
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta ve Microsoft seans kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Seagate ve NXP Semiconductors, olumlu beklenti (\u015firketin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) payla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Piyasadaki tedirginlik nedeniyle oynakl\u0131kta (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131) s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. CBOE Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks; \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d diye an\u0131l\u0131r) birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden 19\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 ya da teknoloji bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VIX\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak do\u011frudan bir \u201chedge\u201d (zarar riskini azaltma) sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizi %3,75\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal verisi ve y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131 enflasyon konusunda daha sert konu\u015fmaya itebilir. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerinin (faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) fiyatlamas\u0131na g\u00f6re yaz aylar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 son bir ayda %15\u2019ten %35\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tahvil getirilerinin (faiz) y\u00fckselmesinden yararlanabilecek opsiyon stratejileri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 105 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi risk. Bu, 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilim azalmazken, enerji taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi olas\u0131. Petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m opsiyonu veya enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) al\u0131m opsiyonu almak bu e\u011filimden yararlanman\u0131n do\u011frudan yollar\u0131ndan biri.<\/p>\n
Dow Jones gerilerken S&P 500 yatay kal\u0131nca, hisselerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski belirgin. Y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam eden enflasyon ve Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz yanl\u0131s\u0131) bir Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olma ihtimali hisseler i\u00e7in zor bir tablo yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in SPY ve QQQ gibi geni\u015f endeksleri izleyen fonlarda sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu gece mega \u00f6l\u00e7ekli teknoloji \u015firketlerinden gelecek bilan\u00e7olar kritik. Microsoft ve Amazon gibi hisselerde y\u00f6n ne olursa olsun sert fiyat hareketleri g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Y\u00f6n konusunda net olmayan ama b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) uygun bir opsiyon stratejisi olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler Fed ve mega teknoloji bilan\u00e7olar\u0131nda: Dow vadelileri 48,8 binde. Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 mal verisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u0130ran ablukas\u0131 iddias\u0131yla petrol %5 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. VIX 19+. Opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45785\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}